Syria reportedly boosts troop deployment near Lebanese border
The Jerusalem Post
(October 31, 2008) - Syria has boosted
its troop deployment near the Lebanese border up to the Beka valley
region, the Lebanese As-Safir newspaper said Friday. Some 3,000
heavily armed troops were reportedly deployed in the area. A
Lebanese army official was quoted as saying that Syria was deploying
its troops along the border with eastern Lebanon "like it did in
September on the northern border." However, he said the increased
troop presence was aimed at stopping smuggling and apprehending
fugitives along the Syrian-Lebanese border.
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Libya offers to host Russian military base
Breitbart
(October 31, 2008) - Libyan leader
Moamer Kadhafi, who visits Moscow Friday for the first time since 1985,
will offer to host a Russian naval base in his north African country, a
Russian newspaper reported. "Libya is ready to host a Russian naval
military base," the Kommersant reported, citing a source close to the
preparations for Kadhafi's first visit here since the days of the Soviet
Union.
The base could be located at the port of Benghazi, the source said. "The
Russian military presence will be a guarantee of non-aggression against
Libya from the United States, which is not in a hurry to embrace Kadhafi
despite gestures of reconciliation," the newspaper said.
Kadhafi is scheduled to visit Russia from Friday to Sunday. Relations
between Russia and Libya, a former pariah state that has pushed to get
back into the international fold in recent years, showed signs of
significant warming this year after a long chill. Earlier this month, a
Russian warship docked in Tripoli as part of a global show of force that
is to include joint naval exercises between Russia and Venezuela in the
Caribbean in November.
In April, during a visit to Tripoli by then-president Vladimir Putin,
Moscow agreed to cancel billions of dollars of Libyan Soviet-era debt in
exchange for multi-billion-dollar contracts with Russian companies.
During his visit, Russian gas giant Gazprom signed a cooperation
agreement with Libya's national energy company while Russia's rail
monopoly signed a 2.2-billion-euro contract to build a railway line in
Libya. During the Cold War, Libya bought many of its weapons from
Moscow.
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Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test
Israel National News
(October 30, 2008) - A weekend 5.0
Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an
Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project. The
report is an
Israel Insider exclusive. This past Saturday night, southern Iran
experienced what was reported as a significant earthquake - a seismic
event measuring 5.0 on the Richter scale. Its epicenter was just north
of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Abu Dhabi
and Oman and which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf.
The report quotes an Iranian nuclear scientist who claims to be working
in uranium enrichment for the project, and who said that the "quake" was
actually an underground nuclear bomb test. Israel Insider adds that the
test/quake was actually the second in a series. Nine days ago, a 4.8
Richter scale event occurred, with its epicenter only five kilometers
away from the weekend tremor.
The Israel Insider source reports that two nuclear rockets are currently
ready - and are intended for use against Israel in the coming months. If
the report is correct, it would belie previous speculation that Iran
would not begin nuclear testing until it had more nuclear-bomb
production capability.
The geographical location of the test has several advantages. It is
exposed to significant seismic activity, which could serve to mask
nuclear tests; it is believed to be close to Iran's nuclear development
facility; delivery and transport of material and personnel can be
effected easily through the Hormuz Strait; and Iranian enemies would
hesitate to bomb the area because that would threaten the flow of a
substantial percentage of the world's oil.
Reuters reports Thursday morning that Iran has begun building a line of
naval bases along its southern coast and up to the Straits of Hormuz.
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Egyptian War Games Cause For Concern in Israel, Lawmaker Says
CNS News
(October 29, 2008) - Israel is upset
over Egyptian military exercises in which the simulated “enemy” is
Israel, and some are calling on the U.S. to reconsider its aid to Egypt
because of it. Israel and Egypt – two U.S. regional allies – signed a
U.S.-sponsored peace treaty in 1979 – Israel’s first with an Arab
nation.
The Egyptian navy reportedly carried out the largest exercise in its
history last week. Dubbed Victory 41, the military maneuvers marked the
Egyptian sinking of the Israeli Naval vessel Eilat 41 years ago, in
which 47 Israeli sailors were killed and 91 wounded. According to the
daily Ha’aretz, Oct. 20 was set aside as a holiday marking the sinking
of the Israeli vessel for the Egyptian naval forces. The paper also
quoted the Egyptian Navy commander in chief Vice Admiral Mohad Mamish in
an interview with the Arabic newspaper Al Ahram, saying that the
Egyptian Naval vessels were outfitted with advanced missiles and the
Navy had supply contracts with Germany, Russia and the U.S.
“Unfortunately now for more than 10 years most of the big [Egyptian]
exercises are simulating war against Israel,” said Dr. Yuval Steinitz,
member of the Israeli Knesset’s influential Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee. The first time was in 1996 when they imitated a war against
“a little country that is bordering Egypt on the northeast,” Steinitz
told CNSNews.com on Wednesday. Looking on the map, it’s clear who they
were simulating the war against, he said. The only new thing this time
is that it has been leaked to the press, said Steinitz.
On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert telephoned Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak to apologize for comments made by a right-wing
Knesset member, who noted that Mubarak has never come on a state visit
to Israel. Olmert told Mubarak that Israel considered him to be “a
strategic partner and a close friend.”
But there are signs of other strains in relations. The Hebrew daily
Maariv reported on Tuesday that on a recent trip to Egypt, the director
of the military/political and policy bureau of Israel’s Ministry of
Defense, told Egyptian Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and Defense
Minister Hussein Tantawi that Israel was concerned about Egypt carrying
out of Egyptian army exercises "that are directed against an Israeli
threat and that relate to it [Israel] as an enemy.” (A translation was
provided by the Independent Media Review and Analysis.)
Israel also is concerned that it has become the central focus for
Egyptian officers in building their forces and by the lack of “any
relations of any kind” between the Israeli and Egyptian armies, Gilad
was quoted as saying. According to the paper, Tantawi said relations
between the armies could improve in the future in tandem with progress
in regional peace. He also said that security challenges obligate Egypt
to build an effective deterrent force.
Steinitz said the military exercises, combined with massive Egyptian
force building plus indoctrination of the military against Israel, was
“something to be concerned about.” He also said that despite the peace
agreement between the two countries, Egypt is anti-Israel in most
international bodies and is also educating the public “for hatred and
not for peace.”
Earlier this year, the Anti-Defamation League told the House Foreign
Affairs Committee that its analysts had found the Egyptian press to be
“a leading propagator of anti-Semitic images” for many years and that
that trend was now spreading to other newspapers in the region.
Egypt is considered one of America’s allies in the region and has been a
mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It is currently
mediating reconciliation talks between the military Hamas group and the
Fatah faction of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
Read full story...
U.S.
aid
Since signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, Egypt has received an
average of more than $2 billion annually in economic and military
foreign assistance from the U.S. – the second largest foreign aid
package after Israel. The administration has requested $1.3 billion in
military aid for 2009 – the same amount it received in 2008. “U.S.
policy toward Egypt is aimed at maintaining regional stability,
improving bilateral relations, continuing military cooperation, and
sustaining the March 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty,” according to a
Congressional Research Service report to Congress in August 2008.
Egypt has long been viewed by U.S. administrations as a “moderating
influence” in the Middle East. Many congressmen see Egypt as a
“stabilizing force” in the region, but others would like to see the U.S.
pressure Egypt to, among other things, “take a more active role in
reducing Arab-Israeli tensions,” the report said.
The U.S. Embassy here had no comment on the military exercises.
But the Zionist Organization of America criticized the Egyptian
“celebration” of its past attacks on Israel and urged the U.S. to
reconsider its massive aid to Egypt contingent on Egypt adopting “truly
peaceful actions and policies toward Israel.”
“Egypt has shown in a variety of ways that it remains a country deeply
hostile to Israel and may indeed be a leading influence in Arab world
hostility to Israel,” ZOA National President Morton A. Klein said in a
statement. “In an era of peace that was meant to be ushered in by the
1979 Camp David peace treaty, Egypt should not be celebrating past
military assaults on Israel which were fought in pursuit of a policy to
eliminate Israel,” Klein said. “This is not a matter of a country
simply honoring its war dead. It is matter of maintaining the hostility
to Israel’s existence,” he said.
The ZOA noted that the Egyptian celebrations were in the wider context
of Egyptian political, cultural and media hostility toward Israel.
Earlier this year, Egyptian Culture Minister Farouk Hosni said he would
“burn Israeli books himself if found in Egyptian libraries.” In 2006, a
poll found that 92 percent of Egyptians regarded Israel as an enemy
nation, and 50 percent regarded the U.S. as an enemy, the ZOA reported.
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It seems
to me that America has her hands pretty deep into the Middle East
mess and that we've easily given away our money for peace. But I
think we are just being taken for our money, and now that this is
diminishing in global influence, someone has to step in. Actually
Europe has been stepping into that role and indeed
Javier
Solana was one of the authors of the roadmap to peace
according to him. But then money is being given from Europe as
well in the name of peace and security while it seems that the
"chaos" from which peace is supposed to arrive could be just around
the corner.
According
to Bible prophecy, Islam will be coming against Israel time and
again in these end times and a certain alliance of them will gather
their forces and attack Israel from the North at which time God will
destroy those invaders in the mountains of Israel and protect His
people for His namesake. Israel has a role in the end times as made
clear in the
study of Bible prophecy. Ultimately this is what the
HIStory, Our Future Bible studies lay out, Israel's
central place in the completion of God's plans to bring a remnant of
His people Israel through the fire to accept Yeshua as the Messiah
prompting His return in glory.
One of
these foreshadows is the
rebuilding of the temple, a feat that seems impossible now.
I posit that God's intervention in such a manner on Israel's behalf
would not only silence the radical Islamic nations for a time,
but I think it would also embolden the nation of Israel and cause a
fundamental spiritual shift that would not only bring many more Jews
to the Holy Land, but also bring the nation together and united
under the authority of scripture, which to them includes the
rebuilding of the temple and the resumption of the daily sacrifice
while excluding the first coming of the Messiah. They will therefore
very much desire to have the temple and according to scripture, they
rebuild it.
I believe
this action would also bring Israel's enemies from all around the
world to be more focused on her and united together, giving the
appearance of global unity - but under whom?

As we see
this and other collusions such as Syria-Russia and the Russian navy
enlarging Syrian ports for her ships. (Syrian ports lie to the North
of Israel) Or large Russian war games and
Hezbollah takeovers of Lebanon, (see
also) also just to the North of Israel. Could all these
activities of military forces as described in
Ezekiel 38,39 be buildup to a planned attack in the future that
God will stop?
As US
forces make an attack inside Syria while our economy is weakened and
we are increasingly viewed as the "big Satan" and Israel the "little
Satan," a view of weakness in Israel's primary "friend" and
something to spark the tensions, like say a
possible Iranian underground nuclear test, could all be leading
to the fulfillment of
Isaiah 17 in a preemptive strike on Damascus. This could be the
straw that brings the
currently forming allies to utilize their prepared military
forces in a sudden attack on Israel justified to the world in
Israel's actions on Damascus. Would Turkey turn on Israel if the
peace they were dealing with between Israel and Syria were seen as
thrown away by an aggressive nation?
Perhaps
I'm just imagining things. If not, time is short.
Mideast: Putting the 'Peace Puzzle' Together
CBN News
(October 28, 2008) - As U.S.
presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama begin the last week
of campaigning before next Tuesday's election, events shaping up in
Israel, Syria and the Palestinian Authority will no doubt factor into
the winning candidate's challenges in the White House.
Syrian officials continue to express their outrage over a U.S. military
attack on Sunday, which killed eight people. Syrian Foreign Minister
Walid Moallem, who accused America of "terrorist aggression," said his
country has a right to respond in kind against the U.S. "The Americans
did it in the daylight," Moallem said during a visit to London Monday.
"This means it is not a mistake. Therefore, we are treating the matter
as a crime and a terrorist act," he said.
While Syria claims the raid targeted civilians at a building
construction site near the border with Iraq, the U.S. said the
helicopter attack targeted the home of Abu Ghadiyah, the known head of a
terrorist network funneling gunmen, weapons and cash across the border
to bolster the insurgency against the Iraqi government. According to
U.S. intelligence sources, Abu Ghadiyah is one of four senior al-Qaeda
officials in Iraq who makes his home in Syria. The successful raid will
have a "debilitating impact" on the terror group's smuggling network,
one U.S. official said. It was the first U.S. military attack on Syrian
soil since 2003, when U.S. troops invaded Iraq, evidence that the Syrian
border remains a battleground. "We're taking matters into our own
hands," one U.S. government official said, alluding to Syria turning a
blind eye to terrorist activity.
Al-Qaeda is not the only Islamic terrorist group with ties to Syria. For
years, Syria has facilitated Iranian weapons transfers to Lebanese-based
Hezbollah terrorists across its border.
Syria's Ties with Hezbollah
On Sunday, Israeli Military Intelligence chief Major General Amos Yadlin
briefed Cabinet ministers on Syria's ties with Hezbollah. "Assad
currently trusts Hezbollah more than his own army," Yadlin said.
"Hezbollah operatives are working from within Syria. The Syrians are
loosing all restraints, Hezbollah access to almost all of their
strategic capabilities," he said. "Currently, Assad is continuing to
open up its warehouses to Hezbollah," Yadlin said, "turning into the
arms granary" for the terror group.
According to Yadlin, Syria and Lebanon's recently renewed diplomatic
ties are a cover up for a future takeover of the country. "Syria and
Iran are buying the regime in Lebanon," he said. " are pouring
substantial money into buying parliamentary representatives and into
conducting dubious business deals," he said. "The Iranian offer to
assist in the building of the Lebanese army is an and Hezbollah guise to
take control of Lebanon," he said.
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Meanwhile, despite Israeli President Shimon Peres' claim that Israel has
never been closer to peace with its Arab neighbors, a look below the
surface at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict tells a different story. PA
President Mahmoud Abbas said Monday that Egyptian efforts to reconcile
Fatah and Hamas are bearing fruit.
Abbas plans to travel to Saudi Arabia soon to relay his most recent
discussions with Egyptian President Hosni Murbarak. "We have agreed with
our Egyptian brothers on a program for national reconciliation," Abbas
said. "Our brothers in Egypt will later publish the details. I want to
stress that all the PLO factions have accepted the Egyptian program,
which we fully support," he said.
Abbas also expressed pleasure with Peres' public support for the Saudi
peace initiative, which he called an Islamic proposal - rather than an
Arab proposal - because it is endorsed by so many Islamic countries. The
plan calls for Israel to retreat to pre-1967 borders in exchange for
"normalization" with Arab League member nations.
Hamas was less enthusiastic with Abbas's announcement. "President Abbas
must reach an agreement with Hamas, not with the Egyptians," Hamas
legislator Salah Bardaweel said. "Egypt is not a party to the conflict
but a mediator. Abbas's confrontation is with Hamas. If he wants to end
the conflict, he must reach an agreement with Hamas," he said.
"We don't believe that Abbas will have the courage to talk with Hamas
because of Israeli and American pressure," Bardaweel said. "He is also
surrounded by some advisors who won't even permit him to mention the
name Hamas. That's why he's talking about agreement with Egypt and not
Hamas," he said.
Meanwhile, Hamas said Israel's going to early elections shows that the
peace process has failed. "Now the Israelis will use the elections as an
excuse not to make any concessions to Mahmoud Abbas," Hamas spokesman
Sami Abu Zuhri said. "They will claim they are too busy with the
elections over the next few months." "This proves that Hamas was right
when it said that the so-called peace process was a waste of time and
that there's no point in negotiating with the occupation ," he said.
Despite claims by outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and others
of like ilk, a closer look at Syrian, Palestinian and Arab League member
nations shows that peace between Israel and her neighbors remains
illusory. With Iran arming Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria to the hilt,
genuine peace is far from reality on the ground.
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U.S. attacks inside Syria
WorldNet Daily
(October 26, 2008) - The U.S. Army
today confirmed it carried out a raid inside a Syrian village near the
Iraqi border, killing at least eight. Today's operation is the first in
which American forces so openly attacked militants on Syrian soil,
clearly broadening the scope of the U.S. military campaign in Iraq.
The U.S. has long accused Damascus of failing to stop insurgents from
crossing from Syria into Iraq, where they purportedly attack coalition
troops and return to safety zones inside Syria. An official Syrian
spokesman confirmed earlier reports by the country's SANA state-run
television, which reported U.S. helicopters were involved in an attack
in Al-Sukkariya, some five miles from the Iraqi border.
Eyewitnesses told reporters they saw four helicopters hover overhead and
then at least eight soldiers disembark, where they engaged a number of
men at a civilian construction site. SANA reported: "Four American
helicopters violated Syrian airspace around 16:45 local time (13:45 GMT)
on Sunday." It claimed "American soldiers" who had emerged from
helicopters "attacked a civilian building under construction and fired
at workmen inside, causing eight deaths." "The helicopters then left
Syrian territory towards Iraqi territory," reported SANA.
The reported incident took place near the Iraqi border city of Qaim,
which the U.S. has labeled as a major crossing point for insurgents,
weapons and money. A U.S. official confirmed the attack targeted what he
said were elements of arobust foreign fighter logistics network
operating in Syria and that due to Syrian inaction the U.S. was now
"taking matters into our own hands."
There have been unconfirmed reports in the past of U.S. forces operating
along the Syrian-Iraqi boarder and even entering hundreds of feet into
Syria in pursuit of insurgents, but today's reported operation would be
the largest yet.
Israeli security officials said the Jewish state was not involved in the
operation. They said it was likely the U.S. attacked insurgent or
al-Qaida elements that ran inside Syria. They said the operation, if
confirmed, likely was to send a signal to Damascus that it is not immune
from retaliation if it continues to allow insurgents to utilize the
country.
Already Syria has summoned the U.S. and Iraqi envoys to Damascus to
protest against what it called a U.S. military attack on its soil.
According to Syrian sources speaking to WND, Syria conveyed a message to
the U.S. claiming Syria does not support the insurgency and opposes any
insurgent or al-Qaida elements operating on Syrian soil. Syria told the
U.S. they were not upset America had attacked insurgents or al-Qaida
elements, if indeed that was the target, but that their protest was
against the U.S. operating on Syrian soil without prior permission.
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Russia blasts off back to the future
Scotland on Sunday
(October 26, 2008) - As they tracked
Russian military maneuvers last week, the US government's
Kremlin-watchers might have been forgiven for wondering if they were
seeing recycled newsreels. A huge exercise, Stability 2008, spread tens
of thousands of troops, thousands of vehicles and scores of combat
aircraft across nearly all 11 time zones of Russian territory in the
largest war game since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was no
specified enemy, but the Russian forces appeared to be enacting a
nationwide effort to quell unrest along Russia's southern border – and
to repulse a US-led attack by Nato forces, according to experts in
Moscow and Washington.
In a grim finale, commanders launched three intercontinental ballistic
missiles, the type that can carry multiple nuclear warheads. It was a
clear signal of the drastic endgame the Kremlin might consider should
its conventional forces not hold. One of the missiles flew more than
7,100 miles, allowing Russian officials to claim they had set a distance
record.
If these images of Russian power projection appeared drawn from the dark
decades of Dr Strangelove, the response from Washington was anything
but. Defence secretary Robert Gates and admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of
the joint chiefs of staff, provided the same sanguine reply, echoed down
through the ranks of government analysts who have spent years reading
Russian military journals and scrutinising classified satellite
photographs.
The Russian military fell to Third World standards from neglect and
budget cuts in the turbulent years when Boris Yeltsin was president,
they say. The new Kremlin leadership is working to create a force that
can actually defend the nation's interests.
The military has embarked upon a programme to buy modern weapons,
improve training and healthcare for troops, trim a bloated officer corps
and create the first professional class of sergeant-level, small-unit
leaders since the Second World War.
That is not to say that the US will stop judging Russian behaviour in
light of what it considers a clumsy, ill-advised invasion of the former
Soviet republic of Georgia. Yet policymakers also say the Kremlin's
efforts at military modernisation should not prevent co-operation on
mutual concerns, including countering terrorism and halting nuclear
proliferation.
Even a high-profile speech last month by President Dmitry Medvedev,
ordering a military modernisation programme and the largest increases in
defence spending since the death of the old USSR, was viewed in
Washington as short on substance and designed more for a domestic
political agenda. Medvedev declared that, by 2020, Russia would
construct new types of warships and an unspecified air and space defence
system. Military spending, he said, will leap 26% next year, bringing it
to 1.3 trillion rubles (about £30bn), its highest level since the
collapse of the Soviet Union – but still a fraction of US military
spending.
American experts were unimpressed. "Russia is prone to make fairly
grandiose announcements about its military," said a defence department
official. "These programmes have long been in the works. They are not
new plans."
Even so, analysts of Russian military affairs acknowledge that a
military renaissance would allow the Moscow leadership to increase
political pressure on former Soviet republics, as well as former Warsaw
Pact allies that embraced Nato after the collapse of communism. "What
the Russian leadership has discovered is proof of an old maxim: that a
foreign policy without a credible military is no foreign policy," said
Dale Herspring, a scholar on Russian military affairs at Kansas State
University.
Read full story...
Some of the steps undertaken to wrench the Russian military out of
mediocrity resemble changes in the American military over several
decades. Russia plans for its ground forces to move to a system designed
for the deployment of brigades, rather than bulkier division or corps
headquarters – nearly copying the US army's approach.
The Russian military also plans to offer pay and housing incentives to
attract noncommissioned officers – the valuable class of sergeants – to
make a long-term career of military service. The plan would shift Russia
further from reliance on one-year conscripts, who are not in uniform
long enough to master even basic skills.
The Russian general staff will be trimmed to 900 from the current 1,100.
But in an acknowledgment that the general officer corps can slow the
pace of change throughout the military, most of those reductions will
occur through retirement.
The Kremlin knows that its military bureaucracy is riddled with
corruption. Experts in Washington say that audits ordered after Vladimir
Putin took over from Yeltsin in 2000 found that 40% of the budget for
some weapons programmes and salaries was lost to theft and waste. The
new defence minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, was a surprise choice, given
that he had no military background but was an expert in finance and
taxes. As he moved to clean house across the military-industrial
complex, the reason for his selection became clear.
Analysts of Kremlin affairs note that a central risk to Russian military
reform might not be foreign armies but the current economic collapse,
which has seen a plummeting of oil prices, robbing Russia of profits
earmarked for upgrading the armed forces. An irony is emerging. One
central cause of the Soviet collapse was that the USSR's centrally
planned, calcified economy simply could not support the Kremlin's
superpower military ambitions. If oil prices continue to drop, Medvedev
and Putin may be faced with the same economic limits on their military
plans.
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EU's Solana targets deal with Syria next year
AFP
(October 23, 2008) - EU foreign
policy chief Javier Solana held talks on Thursday with Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad on the Middle East peace process and regional issues,
highlighting improved ties between them. Solana and Assad discussed
bolstering links between Syria and the European Union and they agreed
"to pursue consultations on regional and international issues," official
news agency SANA said. "Syrian-European ties continue to make progress,"
Solana said, according to SANA. He voiced hope that both sides might
next year sign an "association" agreement.
The EU has signed such a deal with other Mediterranean countries in a
bid to pave the way for the creation of a free trade agreement in 2010.
Solana said the EU "strongly supports" the Middle east peace process and
is trying to play a constructive role," SANA reported. "The EU totally
backs the indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel," he said.
Since May, Syria has been engaged in indirect peace talks with Israel
under Turkish mediation. SANA quoted Assad as saying Europe's "role in
the peace process is important and essential. "Peace guarantees security
and stability to the people of the region and this reflects positively
on Europe and the world."
Solana's visit to Damascus is his first since March 2007, when his trip
signaled a resumption of EU contacts with Damascus frozen after the
February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri.
Anti-Syrian Lebanese figures blamed Syria for the murder but Damascus
has repeatedly denied any involvement. In March 2007, Solana urged
Syria, the former powerbroker in Lebanon, to help ease a protracted
crisis in Lebanon. His return to Damascus comes after Syria and Lebanon
formally established diplomatic ties on October 15, for the first time
since independence 60 years ago. Speaking to reporters after his talks
with Assad, the EU diplomat praised the "importance of developments
which recently occurred in Lebanon," namely the setting up of diplomatic
ties between Beirut and Damascus, SANA reported.
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Security & Defense: 'We're in the midst of preparing the home front for
war' The Jerusalem Post
(October 16, 2008) - According to
Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai, the country is in one of the most
complicated and dangerous periods of its history. And though he does not
believe that Israel can be "wiped off the map," in spite of Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats, he is increasingly concerned
about the current political instability here, which he blames for delays
in projects he deems essential, such as the revamping of the Home Front.
This week, as Israel marked the 35th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War -
reviewing lessons learned from it - Vilnai gave The Jerusalem Post a
lengthy interview, during which he covered a wide range of topics, from
Labor's coalition talks with Kadima, to how Hizbullah chief Sheikh
Hassan Nasrallah is a target, to the danger of holding public
demonstrations calling for the release of Gilad Schalit.
The former deputy chief of General Staff and deputy commander of the
elite commando unit, Sayeret Matkal, says that the IDF is at a most
critical juncture. It is the only military in the world, he explains,
that needs to be ready at any given moment to fight a guerrilla war in
Lebanon, a terror war in the West Bank and a conventional war with
Syria, and confront a possible existential threat from Iran.
Since taking up his post just over a year ago, Vilnai, 64, has been
immersed in establishing the National Emergency Administration (NEA),
which he founded to coordinate among all of the various emergency
services, in the event of a missile onslaught. This is necessary, he
says, because one of the problems encountered during the Second Lebanon
War was that the cabinet had to meet several times to discuss how to get
food to shelters in the North. But "the cabinet needs to run the war."
How do you view Israel's current strategic position in the Middle
East?
There are existential threats today coming from farther away. The
additional complication when dealing with Islamic radical terror is that
the war is not just against terrorists, but against a population. In
Gaza, you can hit Hamas, but it does not hurt Hamas, since the people
there support Hamas. This is the same in Lebanon, where the civilian
population supports Hizbullah. This makes the conflict much more
complicated. As a result, what is needed is a combined
military-diplomatic solution, as well as alliances with other countries.
Is there still a conventional threat?
It exists, and we need to prepare for it, so we can retain capabilities
required for war with Syria, like on Yom Kippur exactly 35 years ago. We
also need to retain the ability to fight Hizbullah and Iran over the
horizon. Today, we need to know how to do different things
[simultaneously], and this is difficult challenge. I can't remember such
a complicated period in my 40 years in the defense establishment.
What poses the greatest threat?
The state of Israel. Establishing a new government is necessary for
stability. The fact that the government changes every two years weakens
us. A ministry that starts everything from scratch every two years
cannot get anything done.
Are there ongoing processes in the Defense Ministry that will be
harmed in the event that general elections are held now?
The change in regime harms and weakens us, and I believe it is of
the utmost importance to continue with the same government today.
We are in the midst of preparing the home front for war and this is
something that the government has spoken about for decades, but never
dealt with or regulated properly. If we change the leadership of the
Defense Ministry, I don't know what will happen. If we don't continue
what we have been doing here for another two years, it will all go to
waste.
What, for example?
The NEA and the annual home front exercises we started. I fear that
if we aren't here, everything will go back to the way it was in the
beginning. We need continuity.
What is the concept behind the NEA?
The responsibility for the home front has always been in the hands
of the municipalities or the local and regional councils, but for years
they shirked this responsibility. The concept behind the NEA is for the
government offices and services to assist them. The IDF, Israel Police,
Fire and Rescue Service, Magen David Adom, the Interior, Welfare and
Health ministries will all work for the mayors and regional council
heads to make sure that life continues, even during wartime.
The cabinet does not need to meet to discuss food distribution to bomb
shelters. A mayor with the right assistance can do this on his or her
own.
What will the next war look like?
The home front will be the main front of the war, whether it is
missiles from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran.
Can there really be peace with Syria?
We need to break the axis of evil. It can be broken militarily, but
the talks with Syria are meant to do this as well. Syria needs to cut
off its ties with Iran. This is our condition, and this is the most
important element. But it is not something that will happen immediately.
We saw other Syrian intentions with the nuclear facility that the air
force destroyed last September.
I don't know what type of facility you are taking about, but that is
why I said we need both elements - military and diplomatic. more...
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A Syrian Takeover of Lebanon?
Gather
(October 2, 2008) - The Middle East
Times
reported October 2 that Syria has been moving military forces to its
border with Lebanon for nearly a week now, raising the question of
whether or not Syria intends to once again overtly exercise control over
its neighbor. Syria has long exercised influence over Lebanon, and only
reluctantly withdrew its forces under international pressure in the wake
of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Syria is suspected by many of being responsible for the Hariri
assassination. As noted by the Times, Syrian President Bashar Assad said
at the time of Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon that the move did not
mean Syria was done exercising its influence. The Times says, and most
observers and analysts agree, that Syria continues to station thousands
of covert intelligence personnel within Lebanon.
Lebanon is a problem for the entire region. Hezbollah
operates freely from Lebanon, and Israel routinely violates Lebanese
territory and airspace in an attempt to keep Hezbollah in check. The
summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel inflicted massive damage on
Lebanon in a conflict that seemed to diminish some of the mystique
surrounding Israeli military might in the region. A significant portion
of the Lebanese Army is sympathetic to Hezbollah, and the Lebanese
government is fragmented and, for all intents and purposes,
dysfunctional. United Nations peacekeepers are present in southern
Lebanon, and Iran exercises some influence as well.
Syria has been attempting in recent months to improve
its standing in the region and in the eyes of the international
community. Syria's alignment with Iran has been strained at times
recently, and negotiations with Israel have not played very well with
hard liners within the Syrian intelligence and military establishments.
The key to much of Syria's power and wealth is its influence in Lebanon,
as well as its degree of control over Lebanon, and it would not be far
fetched to believe that Syria would move its military forces across the
border.
If Syria did act, there would probably few
repercussions, and any condemnations would be largely symbolic. Israel
would not intervene, and probably could not if it wanted to.
Politically, Israel is just too fragile at the moment. The United States
is preoccupied with Afghanistan, Iraq, and a financial crisis at home,
and the United Nations force in southern Lebanon is more for show than
anything else. There is a window of opportunity right now for Syria to
reestablish control over Lebanon. That window could close suddenly, and
Syria may well be positioning itself to act before time runs out.
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Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria
Space War
(October 16, 2008) - Until Russia can revitalize
its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the
Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than
being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet the
Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a
diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal
and to America's ally Israel. The increased Russian naval presence in
the region means that the Kremlin is seeking to cultivate Syria as a
close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the
Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in the Black Sea port of
Sevastopol.
In addition, Russia would also be able to deploy electronic
intelligence-gathering ships that could then improve its monitoring
capabilities against NATO forces and Syria's ability to monitor NATO and
Israeli transmissions, expanding the previous naval intelligence
engagement during the Balkan wars. Finally, Russian naval forces could
deter or disrupt Israeli naval or air assets deployed in wartime against
Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Syria is pursuing new arms deals with Russia, including the purchase of
the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 M2, MiG-31, the latest Sukhoi Su-30 version
-- Flanker, Tor-M1 air defense systems, AT-14 antitank missiles,
upgrades for Syria's aging T-62, T-72 and T-80 Main Battle Tanks, SA-5
Gammon anti-aircraft missile systems, and upgrading Syria's existing
S-125 Air Defense systems to the Pechora-2A.
Iran is also involved in supporting Damascus. In 2007 alone Iran
reportedly financed Syrian purchases of Russian arms to the tune of $1
billion. Iran and Syria, which have had a mutual defense treaty since
2004, train and equip Hezbollah, the biggest terrorist organization in
the Middle East. Russia is cultivating both states as allies and as
customers for Russian arms. What is particularly disturbing is that the
Russian layered air defenses, both short-range TOR and long-range S-300
anti-aircraft systems, are capable of providing the defensive envelope
to the mysterious Syrian nuclear research activities, as well as to the
significant chemical weapons arsenal deliverable by Damascus'
short-range ballistic missiles, such as Syrian-produced SCUD-C and
SCUD-D and, potentially, Russian-made Iskander-E -- NATO designation
SS-X-26.
Damascus has also acquired Pantsir-C1 air defense systems, which
represent the current state of the art in Russian military air defense
technology, but no deal has yet been reached. According to sources in
Moscow, Russia is likely to equip Syria's Tartus naval base with
S-300PMU-2 Favorit ballistic missiles and a radar system more
sophisticated than Syria's current capabilities.
During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union boasted a global naval power
projection capability with yearly naval maneuvers in the Caribbean and
the North Fleet naval brigade in Conakry, Guinea, and Luanda, Angola.
The 8th Operational Squadron of the Pacific Fleet had supply bases in
Aden and Socotra in Yemen and Dahlak in Eritrea, and in Berbera in
Somalia. After the five-day Aug. 8-Aug. 12 war in the former Soviet
republic of Georgia in the Caucasus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is
planning to deploy in Abkhazia, at the ports of Ochamchira and Sukhumi.
For Moscow today, Tartus is only the first step in the long road to a
renewed global naval presence.
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From Syrian fishing port to naval power base: Russia moves into the
Mediterranean
Guardian UK (October
8, 2008) - Military foothold part of closer ties with Damascus.
Move could deter Israel from attacks on Syria. During balmy evenings in
the sleepy Syrian port of Tartous locals promenade along the seafront or
suck on hookahs discussing the two great pillars of their society:
business and family.
Politics, such as it is in the tightly controlled one-party state,
rarely gets a mention, and certainly not in public. But few could fail
to wonder about the foreign sailors dockside and the grey warship
dominating a harbour that was once a trading hub of the Phoenician
empire and is now the centre of a new projection of power, this time by
Syria's old ally Russia.
Tartous is being dredged and renovated to provide a permanent facility
for the Russian navy, giving Moscow a key military foothold in the
Mediterranean at a time when Russia's invasion of Georgia has led to
fears of a new cold war.
The bolstering of military ties between Russia and Syria has also
worried Israel, whose prime minister, Ehud Olmert, was in Moscow
yesterday seeking to persuade the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, to
stop Russian arms sales to Syria and Iran. Mr Olmert later said he had
received assurances that Russia would not allow Israel's security to be
threatened, but offered no indication he won any concrete promises on
Russian arms sales.
Igor Belyaev, Russia's charge d'affaires in Damascus, recently told
reporters that his country would increase its presence in the
Mediterranean and that "Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other
friendly ports more frequently".
That announcement followed a meeting between Medvedev and the Syrian
president, Bashar al-Assad, at the Black sea port of Sochi in the
immediate aftermath of Russia's victory over Georgian forces and its
recognition of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia -
actions Assad supported.
Now, with Ukraine threatening to expel Russia's Black sea fleet from its
base in Sebastopol, the only route for the Russian navy into the
Mediterranean, military cooperation between Moscow and Damascus appears
to have taken on a new zeal.
"Israel and the US supported Georgia against Russia, and Syria thus saw
a chance to capitalise on Russian anger by advancing its long-standing
relations with Moscow," said Taha Abdel Wahed, a Syrian expert on
Russian affairs. "Syria has a very important geographical position for
the Russians. Relations between Damascus and Moscow may not yet be
strategic, but they are advancing rapidly."
Tartous was once a re-supplying point for the Soviet navy at a time when
Moscow sold Syria billions of dollars worth of arms. "Tartous is of
great geopolitical significance considering that it is the only such
Russian facility abroad," a former Russian navy deputy commander,
Igor Kasatonov, said, following a meeting on September 12 in Moscow
between the naval leaders from Russia and Syria.
Syrian-Russian relations cooled after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But they have taken on a new dynamic since Assad succeeded his father in
2000. After a state visit to Russia in 2005, he persuaded Moscow to wipe
three-quarters off a £7.6bn debt Syria owed, mainly from arms sales.
Since then the two countries have been in talks about upgrading Syria's
missile defences with Russia's advanced Strelets system, provoking
condemnation from Israel, whose fighter jets in September 2007 flew
unchallenged into north-east Syria to bomb a suspected nuclear site.
Last month Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said Moscow would
consider selling Damascus new weapons that "have a defensive character
and that do not in any way interfere with the strategic balance in the
region". Though no defence pact has been signed between the two, as it
has between Syria and Iran, observers suggest the very presence of
Russian warships in Tartous would bolster Damascus's military standing
in the region. "Israel would think twice about attacking Syria again
with Russian ships stationed in Tartous," said Abdel Wahed, an analyst.
A senior Israeli colonel has also accused Russia of passing intelligence
about Israel to Syria and indirectly to Hizbullah. Describing electronic
eavesdropping stations on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights believed
to be operated by Russian technicians, Ram Dor, information security
chief for the armed forces, told an Israeli newspaper: "My assessment is
that their facilities cover most of the state of Israel's territory. The
Syrians share the intelligence that they gather with Hizbullah, and the
other way around."
During the 2006 July war Hizbullah fighters used advanced Russian
tank-buster missiles to cripple at least 40 of Israel's Merkava tanks, a
key tipping point in a war that Israel later admitted it lost. The
Russian embassy in Damascus could not be reached for comment.
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Syria poised to invade Lebanon
WorldNet Daily
(September 24, 2008) - New concerns are being raised by the
possibility that Syria may launch troops into Lebanon by using a pretext
of concern over assaults on a Lebanese faction sympathetic to the Syrian
leadership, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
Confirmed reports reveal that there are some 10,000 Syrian special
forces troops massed on the northern border of Lebanon. A small Alawite
faction near the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, has been in repeated
gun fights with Sunni militants. The area's majority population is
Sunni. The Alawites are of the same tribe as Syrian President Bashar
Assad. Most of Syria's top security and military officials also are
Alawite.
The concern is that Syria forcibly would annex the northern part of
Lebanon to protect the Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam which is
associated closely with the Syrian-supported Shiite Hezbollah. The
Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been fighting the Sunnis in support of the
Alawite minority in northern Lebanon. The Alawites in Lebanon became
influential while Syrian troops occupied Lebanon until 2005. The Syrian
troops left following the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese
Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
The Syrian opposition, led by Hariri's son, Saad Hariri, places the
blame of the father's assassination on the Syrian regime. The
investigation to determine responsibility for Hariri's assassination
still is under way. Saad Hariri heads the Sunni group that is fighting
with the Alawites in Tripoli. In early September, Hariri, who heads the
Sunni Future Movement in Lebanon, recently held talks with the head of
the Alawite faction, Ali Eid. Eid is pro-Syrian while Hariri's Future
Movement heads the anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon.
Tensions in Tripoli, however, have precluded any return to political
stability in Lebanon despite efforts last May by Qatar to end a long
power struggle between Hariri's anti-Syrian coalition and the pro-Syrian
Hezbollah. The 10,000 Syrian special forces troops massed on the
Syrian-Lebanese border are in positions on the northern Lebanese border
in the hills overlooking the El-Kabir River, which forms the northern
boundary of the two countries.
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Ten
Russian warships have docked at Syrian port
DEBKAfile
(September 19, 2008) - Israeli military and naval commanders
were taken by surprise by Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov's disclosure that 10
Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus,
DEBKAfile’s military sources report. Moscow and Damascus have worked
fast to put in place the agreement reached in Moscow on Sept. 12 by
Russian navy commander, Adm. Vladimir Wysotsky and Syrian naval
commander Gen. Taleb al-Barri to provide the Russian fleet with a
long-term base at Syrian ports. Israel was not aware that this many
vessels were involved in the deal.
What most worries Israeli military leaders is an earlier announcement by
Adm. Wysotsky that Russia’s Mediterranean assets would subjected to its
Black Sea fleet command, thereby placing Russia’s warships near Israel’s
shores at the service of Moscow’s contest against the US and NATO in the
Caucasian. It is feared that Israel will be dragged into another cold
war. Rear Adm. Baranov disclosed that the warships in Tartus had brought
engineering crews to widen and dredge the harbor to accommodate
additional, fleet vessels. The crews were also working on expanding
Latakia, another Syrian port, possibly for aircraft carriers or guided
missile cruisers. The Russians are making no secret of their intention
of using their naval presence in Syrian ports as a deterrent to a
possible Israeli air strike against Syria.
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Syrian Tripwire For WWIII
Op Ed News - Lord Stirling
(September 19, 2008) - Russian Rear Admiral Andrei Baranov
has disclosed that 10 Russian warships are already anchored at the
Syrian port of Tartus. Russian engineering crews are widening and
dredging the port to accommodate additional Russian warships. The
Russians are making clear their intentions of using the large
Russian naval presence in Tartus as a deterrent to Israeli air
strikes against Syria using the powerful anti-air missiles on-board
the Russian naval warships. These missile systems can sweep the sky
over most of Syria and knock down Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighters.
This changes the balance of power in the air over Syria. This also
places a tripwire for World War III in place in the Middle East. Any
attack on Iran will also involve a war with Syria and Lebanon. This will
now involve Russian military forces in direct support of the
Iranian/Syrian alliance. Russia is a major nuclear power with the power
to destroy every American and NATO city. George Bush has just agreed to
sell Israel 1,000 very advanced American bunker buster bombs for use in
the coming war with Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.
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Could these Russian warships
assist in getting men and materiel from the North through Lebanon
into the mountains of Israel? They certainly seem to be preparing
for plenty of Russian ships to be there for something. What Lord
Stirling calls WWIII, I believe will be cut short when God destroys
the attackers in the mountains of Israel. This doesn't mean that
elsewhere around the world there won't be issues. Remember that the
second seal is men killing each other and the
third is an apparent economic collapse. If you've just joined
the newsletter, you can see where I think this is leading
here
and
here. We could be seeing the unfolding of events that will lead
to Israel rebuilding the temple and the coming abomination of
desolation. What's more, this timing currently fits with that laid
out in the
HIStory, Our Future Bible studies. Keep watching!
Bush Agrees to War on Iran
Op Ed News - Lord Stirling
(September 17, 2008) - The United States has agreed to sell
to Israel 1,000 of the very advanced bunker buster GBU-39 bombs. This is
a major development as the Bush Administration had denied previous
recent Israeli requests for large numbers of this weapon system. The
GBU-39 has a stand off range of 110 km and uses pop-out wings with
extremely accurate fire and forget technology. It is capable of
penetrating 90 cm of steel reinforced concrete. This indicates that the
Israeli Government has succeeded in its request that America allow it to
attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The GBU-39s will be used extensively
in attacks on Iranian targets, as well as on Syrian and Hezbollah high
value targets in both Syria and Lebanon.
The Israeli political landscape is about to change. I have been
expecting former Israeli Prime Minister, and super war hawk, Benyamin
Netanyahu to make a well timed major move. Current Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert is about to resign due to his ongoing criminal
troubles. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister Shaul
Mofaz are in a tight battle to win the vote on Wednesday as Kadima Party
Chairman, with the right to attempt to form a new government. However,
it appears that Bibi Netanyahu has put together a deal with Labor Party
leader, former PM and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and the
ultra-religious Shas Party to form a government with Bibi as Prime
Minister in a few days time. Count on Bibi Netanyahu lighting a
blowtorch in the dry kindling that is the Middle East.
There is a real technical question if the GBU-39 can destroy all of the
key known or suspected Iranian nuclear sites, as well as key military
sites in Lebanon and Syria. The hardest sites are very well protected.
Some experts think that several dozen to a hundred plus GBU-39s targeted
at the same spot can take out even the deepest/most harden site; others
say that a micro or mini nuke will be required.
The Israeli and American war planners may be counting on all sides
refraining from the use of WMD. Rather like Saddam held back his 29 WMD
armed (chemical and anthrax) Scud-type guided missiles during the First
Gulf War and like Hezbollah did during the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
If this is the strategy it is one very, very, massive risk to all
involved.
Read full story...
An effective attack on the Iranian nuclear program and likely hidden
sites will require a massive number of air strikes over the Iranian land
mass. Iran will respond with missile attacks from its territory on
Israel and with rocket and missile attacks from Lebanon and Gaza and the
West Bank. Israel has tried very hard to convince Syria to part company
with Iran but has had little success. Syria has a large number of guided
missiles that can reach virtually all parts of Israel.
While the American supplied Israeli weapons, and the Israeli produced
guided missiles, are highly accurate the Iranian/Syrian guided missiles
are not so accurate (and the many tens of thousands of unguided rockets
in Lebanon and Gaza/West Bank are notoriously inaccurate). This means
that Israeli civilians will be hit hard if only non-WMD warheads are
used. The temptation for Israel to hit back at Iranian and Syrian
population centers will be very high. If this happens the cycle of
escalation and counter-escalation will likely get out of control; and
this is assuming that major efforts will be made to avoid mutual use of
WMD in the first place.
Israel has most likely over 600 nuclear warheads from micro nukes to
high mega tonnage hydrogen bombs, as well as advanced biological
weapons, chemical weapons, radiological weapons, and fuel air explosive
based weapons. The Iranian/Syrian side has radiological weapons, fuel
air weapons, chemical weapons, advanced biological weapons, and maybe a
crude nuclear device or two (doubtful but a remote possibility).
The Iranians have made it clear that they will close the Gulf to oil
shipping in the event of a war. Americans have just had a taste of
$5/gallon gasoline with Hurricane Ike. A general Middle East War could
bring $10/per gallon gas prices to America. The world's economy, already
headed to a global depression, will be thrust into the worst depression
in human history.
The Iranians are also apt to hit American targets in the Middle East. In
any case, any closing of the Gulf will bring a massive American and
allied response making the Middle East War a likely global one as
massive US/allied air attacks and naval attacks plummet Iran well beyond
what Israel began.
If Iran feels that its population is seriously in danger or that its
existence as a nation state is at risk, she is apt to use her strategic
MAD (mutually assured destruction) force WMD (weapons of mass
destruction) on the west and Israel. These weapons are DNA
recombination, genetically engineered, advanced biological weapons;
man-made viruses that are designed to spread throughout North America
and western Europe using humans as vectors ~ viruses that have never
existed before and for which we humans have NO DEFENSE. Iran began an
advanced biowar program years ago using out-of-work former Soviet
advanced biowar experts, and currently has a world-class advanced biowar
program. Throw Russia and China into this mix and you have World War
Three.
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IDF intelligence: Syria strengthening ties with radical axis
YNet News
(September 15, 2008) - Head of Military Intelligence research
division tells Knesset committee Damascus simultaneously boosting
ties with West, radical countries. Adds: Hamas establishing bona
fide country in Gaza. "Syria is moving forward along the path of peace
and openness toward the West while simultaneously strengthening its ties
to the radical axis," the head of the research division of Military
Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz told the Knesset's Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee Monday.
Addressing the Iranian nuclear program, Baidatz said "the most
optimistic scenario as far as the Iranians are concerned is that they
will have obtained nuclear capabilities by 2010," but added that such a
scenario was "not likely". According to the intelligence official, Iran
is continuing to advance technologically while the international
community is not showing any signs of trying to stall the Islamic
Republic's progress.
'Weapons smuggling continues'
Baidatz told the MKs that Hamas is continuing to arm itself with Qassam
rockets and is obtaining capabilities that may threaten Israel's home
front. "Hamas is also improving its defense capabilities in case of an
Israeli operation (in Gaza)," he said. "The Islamist group is turning
Gaza into a bona fide state. Hamas is the clear and decisive ruler
there." According to Baidatz, the smuggling of weapons and goods
into the Strip through the Rafah crossing continues despite the
Egyptians' efforts to prevent it.
As for Israel's northern border, Baidatz said Hizbullah may attempt to
shoot down any Israeli aircraft that enters Lebanese airspace, adding
that the Shiite group's armament was also continuing "north and south of
the Litani River". He said the transfer of arms to Hizbullah from
Iran and Syria is continuing in violation of UN Security Council
Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War.
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Syria
'boosts troops on border'
BBC News
(October 7, 2008) - Syria has reportedly moved
more troops to its side of the eastern Lebanese border, weeks after
boosting numbers along Lebanon's northern frontier. Reports said the
troops had dug trenches and set up checkpoints in the northern Bekaa
valley region. The Syrian authorities have not commented on the latest
deployment. Damascus said earlier troop movements were aimed at
combating smugglers. On Monday, the US warned Syria against a possible
intervention in Lebanon.
Anti-Syrian Lebanese groups fear Damascus might use insecurity in
northern Lebanon as a pretext for a military intervention. The Lebanese
army says about 10,000 Syrian forces have been deployed on the border
since 22 September when the first units moved in. Syria was the main
power broker in Lebanon after the 1975-90 civil war but withdrew tens of
thousands of troops from the country after popular pressure from
opponents in Lebanon in 2005.
It says measures taken along the border are in line with agreements
between Lebanon and Syria, which have been trying to normalise relations
with support from France. In recent days, the US has established a
bilateral military commission with Lebanon, aimed at building up the
country's armed forces.
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Syria-Russia naval cooperation grows
YNet News
(September
12, 2008) - Russia announced Friday it was renovating a Syrian
port for use by the Russian fleet in what could signal an effort for a
better foothold in the Mediterranean amid the rift with the United
States over Georgia. Syria was Moscow's strongest Mideast ally during
the Cold War. The alliance largely waned after the 1991 fall of the
Soviet Union, though Russia has continued some weapons sales to
Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad has increasingly reached out to
Russia recently, including Seeking weapons and offering broader military
cooperation. Friday's announcement was the first tangible sign of any
new cooperation. The Itar-Tass news agency said Friday that a vessel
from Russia's Black Sea fleet had begun restoring facilities at Syria's
Mediterranean port of Tartus for use by the Russian military. The two
countries' naval chiefs also met in Moscow on Friday and discussed
"further strengthening mutual trust and mutual understanding between the
two states' fleets," A Russian naval official, Igor Dygalo, told
Itar-Tass. The Tartus renovations could signal an intention to have a
long-term Russian naval presence there. In late August, Russia's
ambassador to Damascus, Igor Belyev, said that Russian ships already
patrol the area, but "a new development is that the Russian presence in
the Mediterranean will become permanent." Syrian media made no mention
of the Russian announcement Friday, and Syrian officials could not be
reached for comment. Russian military experts said Tartus would be a
considerable boost for operations in the Mediterranean. "It is much more
advantageous to have such a facility than to return ships patrolling the
Mediterranean to their home bases," Former Black Sea Fleet commander
Adm. Eduard Baltin said, according to the Russian Interfax-AVN service.
The former first deputy commander the Russian Navy, Adm. Igor Kasatonov,
said Tartus "is of great geopolitical significance considering that it
is the only such Russian facility abroad."
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Nasrallah: No peace in Middle East as long as Israel exists
Haaretz
(September
11, 2008) - The Hezbollah leader went on to say that his
Lebanon-based guerilla group is stronger than ever and is prepared for
its next confrontation with Israel. "Any Israeli attack on Lebanon,
Iran, Syria or Gaza will be met with a fierce response," Nasrallah said.
He added that Hezbollah has grown logistically and militarily stronger,
claiming that all of Lebanon has united against a common enemy - Israel.
One subject Nasrallah did not broach in the interview is the
assassination last February of the group's second-in-command, Imad
Mughniyeh. Nasrallah did not discuss how or when his group would avenge
the killing. Recent Israeli intelligence reports, however, have
suggested that Hezbollah is planning to abduct Israelis abroad as
revenge for Mughniyeh's assassination.
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Syria warns of 'catastrophic' effect of any Israeli strike on Iran
Breitbart.com
(September
2, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned Tuesday that
an attack by Israel on Iran would have catastrophic consequences for the
entire world. "We think that Israel could try to launch attacks against
Iran, even against Lebanon or Syria," he said in an interview with
France 3 television. "Any attack by Israel or by anyone else will have
catastrophic results not only on the region but on the whole world," he
said. In recent months several Israeli politicians have talked of the
possibility of a preemptive military strike against Iranian nuclear
facilities to avoid any possibility of Tehran acquiring an atomic
weapon. Iran has responded by threatening retaliatory strikes with its
Shahab-3 missiles which have a nominal range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250
miles) -- enough to reach Israel.
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Israeli-Syrian peace talks postponed
The Jerusalem Post
(September
1, 2008) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy is scheduled to visit
Damascus on Wednesday, a trip Israel had an indirect role in making
possible because of its indirect talks with Syria, at a time when -
ironically - the Israel-Syria track seems frozen. Turkish sources said
Monday that there was no new date scheduled for the fifth round of
indirect talks in Turkey between Syrian and Israeli negotiating teams, a
round that was originally scheduled for last week, then postponed until
this week, and now tentatively set for next week. Turkish sources told
The Jerusalem Post last week that it was likely that the talks would be
postponed until after Sarkozy's two-day trip to Damascus. The Syrians
have expressed interest in US and French co-sponsorship of the talks,
something which Sarkozy would like to see. In a speech to French
ambassadors last week, Sarkozy said it was because Syria knew that
France had excellent relations with Israel and the US that "Damascus
wanted France to shoulder this unprecedented responsibility in due
time." He said this would be discussed during his visit. The US,
meanwhile, has shown no interest in involvement. Sarkozy's visit will be
the first by a French leader to Damascus since former president Jacques
Chirac cut ties with Syria following the assassination in February 2005
of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, a close friend of
Chirac. Diplomatic officials have said that Israel's decision to hold
indirect talks with Syria gave a certain degree of "diplomatic cover"
for Sarkozy to make overtures to Assad, with the argument being that if
it was okay for Jerusalem to talk with the Syrians, then it was also
okay for France. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also
scheduled to visit Damascus this week, expected to visit there on
Thursday, the day that Sarkozy leaves. This has led to speculation that
Erdogan wants to ensure that Turkey maintains its central role in the
Israel-Syria talks. Turkish sources, however, said that the hastily
scheduled Erdogan visit was likely connected more to the
Russian-Georgian crisis, than to the Israeli-Syrian track. Turkey's
decision to allow US warships through the Bosporus Straits to the Black
Sea was slammed by Russia, and Moscow's displeasure was translated into
long delays for Turkish exporters at the Russian border. Turkey hit back
Monday, subjecting Russian imports into Turkey to additional searches.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to arrive in
Istanbul on Tuesday for a meeting that will focus on the rising
tensions, and Erdogan's visit to Damascus - which is supporting Russia
in its conflict with Georgia - is expected to focus on that issue.
more...
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U.N. Confirms: Hizbullah Importing Weapons From Syria
Israel National News
(August
30, 2008) - A United Nations task force assigned to report on
weapons smuggling in Lebanon said Monday that Hizbullah has been
bringing arms across the Syrian-Lebanese border. This confirms Israeli
allegations that the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group has been
steadily rearming with Syrian assistance and Lebanese collusion. Last
month, Defense Minister Ehud Barak told U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney
that "the number of missiles in the hands of Hizbullah has doubled, if
not tripled, and that the range of the missiles has been extended. And
this has been accomplished with the close assistance of the Syrians." In
March, an anonymous source told the Associated Press that Hizbullah held
new Iranian rockets capable of striking as far south as Dimona, Israel's
nuclear facility in the Negev. According to the task force report,
submitted to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday, neither
Lebanese nor Syrian officials have done anything to end weapons
transfers to Hizbullah. The task force, which has seen no improvement in
the situation since it started its work in 2007, noted that weapons flow
easily across the Syrian-Lebanese frontier due to lax or non-existent
inspections. Even the air and sea ports into Lebanon, the report says,
have been used for weapons smuggling. Earlier this month, Lebanon's
cabinet voted to allow Hizbullah to maintain its weapons arsenal. The
government decision specifically approves Hizbullah activities aimed at
Israel. In Violation of U.N. Resolutions Weapons transfers to the
Hizbullah such as those cited in the task force report are in violation
of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon
War two years ago. However, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
(UNIFIL) patrols in southern Lebanon, far from the weapons transfer
routes. Furthermore, UNIFIL has stated outright that it would not
enforce Res. 1701 conditions calling for the disarming of Hizbullah. In
March 2008, Hizbullah terrorists threatened and chased off UNIFIL forces
after the armed international soldiers found a truck carrying illicit
arms and ammunition. The incident was mentioned in a semi-yearly report
submitted to the U.N. Security Council by Ban Ki-moon. In an earlier
report to the U.N. Security Council, in February 2008, Ki-moon noted,
"Hizbullah, by admission of its leaders on several occasions, has
replenished its military capacity since the 2006 war with Israel. I
therefore remain concerned that this border remains vulnerable to such
[weapons transfers], which would represent serious violations of the
resolution and constitute a significant threat to the stability and
security of Lebanon."
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Report: Israel threatened to target Syria if
Hezbollah attacks, taken in light of other
stories of Russia and Syria as well as Turkey and Syria... Keep
watching
Will Turkey Abandon NATO? Wall
Street Journal
(August
29, 2008) - Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO
ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist
Georgia? Or will it choose Russia? A Turkish refusal would seriously
impair American efforts to support the beleaguered Caucasus republic.
Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to
make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the
North. Yet that is precisely the decision before Ankara. If Turkey does
not allow the ships through, it will essentially be taking Russia's
side. Whether in government or in the military, Turkish officials have
for several years been expressing concern about U.S. intentions to
"enter" the Black Sea. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Black Sea
remained peaceful due to the fact that Turkey and Russia had clearly
defined spheres of influence. But littoral countries Romania and
Bulgaria have since joined NATO, and Ukraine and Georgia have drawn
closer to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Ankara has expressed nervousness
about a potential Russian reaction. The Turkish mantra goes something
like this: "the U.S. wants to expand NATO into the Black Sea -- and as
in Iraq, this will create a mess in our neighborhood, leaving us to deal
with the consequences once America eventually pulls out. After all, if
Russia is agitated, it won't be the Americans that will have to deal
with them." Nonetheless, Ankara sided with fellow NATO members in
telling Georgia and Ukraine that they would be invited to join the
alliance -- albeit without any time frame. But now that Russia has waged
war in part over this decision, the Turks will have to pick sides.
Deputy chief of the Russian general staff Anatoly Nogoivtsyn already
warned Turkey that Russia will hold Turkey responsible if the U.S. ships
do not leave the Black Sea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel
to Ankara on Monday to make clear that Russia means it. Russia is
Turkey's largest trading partner, mostly because of Turkey's dependence
on Russian gas. More important, the two countries share what some call
the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former
provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to
recreate old agreements on spheres of influence. When Mr. Putin gave a
speech in Munich last year challenging the U.S.-led world order, Turks
cheered. The Turkish military even posted it on its Web site. President
Abdullah Gül recently suggested that "a new world order should emerge."
Turkey joined Russia at the height of its war on Georgia in suggesting a
five-party "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." In other
words, they want to keep the U.S. and the EU at arm's length. Both
Russia and Turkey consider Georgia's American-educated president,
Mikheil Saakashvili, to be crazy enough to unleash the next world war.
In that view Turkey is not so far from the positions of France or
Germany -- but even these two countries did not suggest that the
Georgians sign up to a new regional arrangement co-chaired by Russia
while the Kremlin's air force was bombing Georgian cities. Two other
neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- are watching the Turkish-Russian
partnership with concern. Azeris remember how the Turks -- their ethnic
and religious brethren -- left them to be annexed by the Soviets in the
1920s. Armenians already fear their giant neighbor, who they consider to
have committed genocide against them. Neither wants to have to rely on
Iran (once again) as a counterbalance to Russia. Oh, and of course, Iran
had its own sphere-of-influence arrangements with the Soviets as well.
Though Turkey and Iran are historic competitors, Turkey has broken
with NATO countries recently by hosting President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on
a working visit. As the rest of NATO was preoccupied with the Russian
aggression in Georgia, Turkey legitimized the Iranian leader amidst
chants in Istanbul of "death to Israel, death to America." A few days
later, Turkey played host to Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, who is accused of
genocide by the rest of NATO -- but not by Russia or Iran, or by the
Muslim-majority countries who usually claim to care so much about Muslim
lives. Where is Turkey headed? Turkish officials say they are
using their trust-based relations with various sides to act as a
mediator between various parties in the region: the U.S. and Iran;
Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan, etc. It may be so. But as
more American ships steam toward the Black Sea, a time for choosing has
arrived.
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How would they react if
Damascus were destroyed?
Russian Navy planning greater presence in Syria
Boston.com
(August
28, 2008) - The Russian Navy will make more use of Syrian ports
as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian
diplomat said yesterday. The announcement comes as tensions rise between
Moscow and the West over Russia's role in Georgia. President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria backed Russia's recent offensive on Georgia in support
of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week. "Our navy
presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be
visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently," Igor Belyaev,
the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.
"The visits are continuing," he added. Russia relies on Syria's Tartous
port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties
between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism,
when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.
Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including
the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this
month. Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military
agreements with Syria were reached during Assad's meeting with President
Dmitry Medvedev of Russia today. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as
this does not disturb the "regional balance of power." Lavrov was
referring to the position of Israel, which has a superior military and
is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Syria, which is
technically at war with the Jewish state, has embarked on a drive to
upgrade its military in recent years.
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And why might Israel feel
threatened by Syria enough to take action against Damascus? This
buildup of military in the North of Israel might also explain a
quick retaliation too. Russia just showed her military might in
Georgia just North of Turkey, what if Turkey joined in a retaliation
with Iran, who has been openly expressing the desire to wipe Israel
off the map? Keep watching.
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance
with Russia Times Online
(August 21, 2008) - Syria raised the
prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking
fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he
arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are
ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its
security.” The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia
really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself
closed in a circle.” Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the
deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also
interested in buying Russian weapons. In return Moscow is expected to
propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of
Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the
Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies
during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised
the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western
alliance with former Soviet bloc allies. Many in Israel fear that the
Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers
to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And
with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia
appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria. Already, Israeli
observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies
to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater
energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn
allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use
Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed
Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the
Middle East and increase arms sales. Syria and Israel recently confirmed
they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades
of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international
isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A
closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out
of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could
encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by
Israel in 1967, by force. The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech
with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader,
over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the
Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal
Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with
Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards. “Gal
Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost
because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts
and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed. “What
happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking
to entangle in dangerous adventures.”
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What are the chances of this
Syrian-Russian alliance and fear in Israel that the growing
instability for their nation because of the energy crisis and
threats against her could lead to a pre-emptive attack on Damascus?
And what are the chances that Russia and Iran would retaliate?
Considering Turkey's recent attempts to reconcile Syria and Israel,
would they consider Israel's action against Damascus worth declaring
war against her with Russia and Turkey as prophesied? Keep watching.
Russia sends aircraft carrier to Syria
Barents Observer
(August 20, 2008) - The Russian aircraft
carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the
Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after
Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the
area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s
only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission
will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines,
Newsru.com reports. President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week
expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia.
He also expressed interest in the establishment of Russian missile air
defence facilities on his land. The “Admiral Kuznetsov” also last year
headed a navy mission to the Mediterranean. Then, on the way from the
Kola Peninsula and south, it stopped in the North Sea where it conducted
a navy training exercise in the immediate vicinity of Norwegian offshore
installations.
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Monitor: UN peacekeepers in Lebanon co-opted by Hizbullah
World Tribune
(August 20, 2008) - A consultant to the
United Nations said its peace-keeping force in Lebanon has been
effectively paralyzed. An independent monitoring group, registered as a
consultant to the UN, said UNIFIL could not act without permission of
Hizbullah and the Lebanese government it now controls. "They [UNIFIL]
mustn't accept Hizbullah blackmailing," Toni Nissi, general coordinator
of the Lebanese Committee for UN Security Council Resolution 1559 said.
[On Aug. 19, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel would lift
any limitations on military operations should Lebanon turn into what he
termed a Hizbullah state. Olmert said Israel had restrained itself
during the 2006 war with Hizbullah to avoid damage to Lebanon.] In a
briefing on Aug. 16, Nissi said UNIFIL has become a hostage of
Hizbullah. He said the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad
Siniora has refused to grant permission to UN peace-keepers to halt
Hizbullah weapons smuggling or deployment south of the Litani River, a
key element of Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the
Israeli-Hizbullah war in 2006. "1701 also calls for the implementation
of [Security Council resolution] 1559, especially the disarmament of the
militias, and calls for sealing the border between Lebanon and Syria and
forbidding the entering of arms and weapons via the border, especially
to Hizbullah," Nissi said. "So Hizbullah is violating 1701 big time, and
not only by hiding its weapons in warehouses in the south. Also, we
haven't seen any weapons coming out of the south after the war of 2006.
So did Hizbullah throw its weapons used in the 2006 war into the sea?"
The monitoring group, with representatives in Lebanon and other
countries, disputed an assertion by UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Claudio
Graziano that Hizbullah was honoring resolution 1701. Graziano also said
UNIFIL maintained excellent relations with the militia. "Is the UNIFIL
mandate to coordinate with Hizbullah or to kick Hizbullah out south of
the Litani?" Nissi responded. Former UNIFIL adviser Timor Goksel said
the 13,500 international peace-keeping force has sought to avoid
friction with Hizbullah. Goksel told a briefing in Beirut that Hizbullah
has established a major presence in southern Lebanon. "I know they are
careful not to challenge UNIFIL and there is practically no visible
Hizbullah fighter to be seen," Goksel said. "As far as UNIFIL is
concerned, this is compliance."
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Israeli missile defense system detects Syrian tests
World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Israeli officials said
the Syrian military conducted tests of both ballistic missiles and
tactical rockets in the spring and summer of 2008. "It was the kind of
test that Iran conducted earlier this year and meant to show that Syria
could fire missiles simultaneously from a range of batteries in the
southern and central parts of the country," an official said. The Syrian
tests were detected by Israel's Arrow-2 missile defense system. The
Arrow's Green Pine early-warning radar was said to have a range of more
than 800 kilometers, which covers most of Syria, Middle East Newsline
reported. Officials said the Syrian tests included that of the Scud D
ballistic missile, with a range of 700 kilometers and which can contain
a chemical warhead. They said North Korea has helped Syria develop a
two-stage Scud D meant to frustrate Israel's missile defense system.
They said the launches appeared to test Syria's command and control
network required to sustain a missile attack on Israel. Syria was also
said to have fired the Soviet-origin SS-21 rocket during the exercise.
The single-stage SS-21 has a range of more than 70 kilometers and was
said to be capable of striking Israeli strategic facilities. Officials
said Syria has about 1,000 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles,
including the Scud B and Scud C. They said Iran and North Korea have
been helping Syria integrate a range of missile and rocket batteries
into a nationwide network. Israel responded to the Syrian missile
launches with a missile defense exercise in August. Officials
acknowledged that neither Israel's Arrow-2 nor the U.S.-origin Patriot
systems could intercept most of Syria's missiles and rockets. Israel's
Channel 2 television disclosed the Syrian missile and rocket exercise on
Aug. 18, the eve of a visit by President Bashar Assad to Russia. Assad
was expected to discuss with his Russian hosts the prospect of
purchasing the Iskander-E rocket, with a range of 280 kilometers.
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Need I add anything concerning
a pre-emptive attack on Damascus?
Report warns of global fallout from invasion of Georgia, faults U.S.
intelligence World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's invasion of
Georgia demonstrated Moscow's growing power and is making waves in the
Middle East, a report by a leading U.S. analyst said. The report by the
Institute for Contemporary Affairs asserted that Iran would be
emboldened by Moscow's successful military campaign. "The long-term
outcomes of the current Russian-Georgian war will be felt far and wide,
from Afghanistan to Iran, and from the Caspian to the Mediterranean,"
the report, titled "The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the
Middle East," said. "The war is a mid-sized earthquake which indicates
that the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and nations in
the Middle East, including Israel, need to take notice." Authored by
Ariel Cohen, the report said Russia's strategic goals included
increasing control of energy pipelines to Turkey. Cohen also warned
Israel not to provoke Moscow or rely on U.S. support against Iran,
Middle East Newsline reported. "U.S. expressions of support of
the kind provided to Georgia — short of an explicit mutual defense pact
— may or may not result in military assistance if/when Israel is under
attack, especially when the attacker has an effective deterrent, such as
nuclear arms deliverable against U.S. targets," the report said. "In
the future, such an attacker could be Iran or an Arab country armed with
atomic weapons. Israel can and should rely on its own deterrent — a
massive survivable second-strike capability." The report criticized
the U.S. intelligence community, which failed to detect Russian
efforts to annex Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Cohen, who
warned that Ukraine was Moscow's next target, said the Bush
administration did not prepare the Georgian military for a Russian
attack. "This is something to remember when looking at recent American
intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the
unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against
Hamas," Cohen said. Cohen said a pro-Russian regime in Georgia would
result in Moscow's full control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
and the Baku-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, both of which reach Turkey.
Israel has been receiving some of its oil from Ceyhan and has a "stake
in the smooth flow of oil from the Caspian." The report said Russia
financed and armed the Russian ethnic community in Georgia to foment
unrest. Cohen compared this to Iran's use of proxies to attack Israel
from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. "This use of small, ethnically-based
proxies is similar to Iran's use of Hizbullah and Hamas to continuously
attack Israel," the report said. "Tbilisi tried for years to deal
with these militias by offering a negotiated solution, including full
autonomy within Georgia." Cohen, a senior researcher at the
Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said Russia plans to extend its
influence throughout the Middle East. He cited Russian Navy bases in the
Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartous and plans to establish a presence in
Libya. "Clearly, with the renewal of East-West tensions as a result of
Russia's moves against Georgia, it will be much more difficult to obtain
Moscow's agreement to enhance sanctions and international pressures on
Iran," the report said. "The struggle to diplomatically halt its
[Iran's] nuclear program will become far more difficult."
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This article really touches on
several of the aspects of the sequence of events I believe will
unfold according to Bible prophecy. The intelligence community
failed to detect Russia's intentions/actions until they were
unfolding and the "global community" didn't do anything but condemn
the use of force, which sends a signal that Russia and others can
get away with actions like this. Furthermore, Israel is told they
would pretty much be on their own. Then it also says Israel should
rely on its own deterrent, a massive second-strike capability. Is it
too far-fetched to believe that Israel could make a pre-emptive
strike given the very vocal intentions to run Israel into the sea?
Israelis: War With Hezbollah Inevitable
Newsmax
(August 18, 2008) - The Israeli army says
Hezbollah has re-armed with 40,000 rockets — triple the number it had at
the start of the Lebanon War two years ago. Therefore, many Israelis
believe another war with Hezbollah is inevitable. "The war set the stage
for a more comprehensive Middle East conflict," said Israeli analyst
Michael Oren. "It set into motion a dynamic in the Arab world, where
much of the Arab street believes that Hezbollah won that war, and there
is tremendous expectation on Hezbollah to continue the struggle."
Hezbollah fired 4,000 rockets into Israel during the 34-day conflict.
But a massive Israeli air and ground assault failed to deal a knockout
blow to 5,000 Hezbollah guerrillas in South Lebanon, prompting an
official Israeli inquiry to describe the government's and army's
handling of the war as a failure. Oren says there were failures, but
also achievements. "Israel wreaked tremendous havoc in Lebanon in 2006,"
Oren said. "We destroyed all of Hezbollah's infrastructure, much of its
civilian headquarters, we killed about a quarter of their fighters, that
is a prohibitive number of casualties for any modern fighting force, and
yet perception is everything in the Middle East and the perception was,
in the Arab world at least, that Israel was bested in that conflict."
Under the U.N. ceasefire resolution that ended the war, about 13,000
international peacekeepers have deployed in South Lebanon. But Israel
charges that they have failed to fulfill their mandate of preventing
weapons smuggling to Hezbollah from Syria and Iran. With a bristling new
arsenal of rockets, Oren believes a Hezbollah attack on Israel is just a
matter of time. "Israel would then have to reply into Lebanon, possibly
drawing in the Syrians and ultimately the Iranians," Oren said. And with
the possible involvement of regional superpowers, the next war could be
much worse than the last one.
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Remember the news story
regarding Isra