Magog Invasion Buildup In The News
South Ossetia: Russia Intends to Absorb Georgian Region
Fox News
(August
29, 2008) - Officials in South Ossetia said Friday that Russia
intends eventually to absorb the breakaway Georgian province. Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev and the region's leader, Eduard Kokoity,
discussed South Ossetia's future earlier this week in Moscow, South
Ossetian parliamentary speaker Znaur Gassiyev said. Russia will absorb
South Ossetia "in several years" or earlier, a position that was "firmly
stated by both leaders," Gassiyev said. A Kremlin spokeswoman said she
had no such information and declined immediate comment. Moscow has
recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a second separatist region of
Georgia, as independent, drawing criticism from the West. Russia found
itself unable to shore up its own international support when China and
four former Soviet republics in Central Asia refused a Moscow appeal to
recognize the territories. Russia accuses Georgia of starting the
five-day war between the two countries earlier this month by attacking
South Ossetia on Aug. 7. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says the
U.S. instigated the fighting by encouraging Georgia to use force to rein
in the separatist region. Gassiyev's deputy, Tarzan Kokoiti, said South
Ossetia has the right to reunite with North Ossetia, which is part of
Russia. "We will live in one united Russian state," he said.
Will Turkey Abandon NATO? Wall
Street Journal
(August
29, 2008) - Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO
ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist
Georgia? Or will it choose Russia? A Turkish refusal would seriously
impair American efforts to support the beleaguered Caucasus republic.
Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to
make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the
North. Yet that is precisely the decision before Ankara. If Turkey does
not allow the ships through, it will essentially be taking Russia's
side. Whether in government or in the military, Turkish officials have
for several years been expressing concern about U.S. intentions to
"enter" the Black Sea. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Black Sea
remained peaceful due to the fact that Turkey and Russia had clearly
defined spheres of influence. But littoral countries Romania and
Bulgaria have since joined NATO, and Ukraine and Georgia have drawn
closer to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Ankara has expressed nervousness
about a potential Russian reaction. The Turkish mantra goes something
like this: "the U.S. wants to expand NATO into the Black Sea -- and as
in Iraq, this will create a mess in our neighborhood, leaving us to deal
with the consequences once America eventually pulls out. After all, if
Russia is agitated, it won't be the Americans that will have to deal
with them." Nonetheless, Ankara sided with fellow NATO members in
telling Georgia and Ukraine that they would be invited to join the
alliance -- albeit without any time frame. But now that Russia has waged
war in part over this decision, the Turks will have to pick sides.
Deputy chief of the Russian general staff Anatoly Nogoivtsyn already
warned Turkey that Russia will hold Turkey responsible if the U.S. ships
do not leave the Black Sea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel
to Ankara on Monday to make clear that Russia means it. Russia is
Turkey's largest trading partner, mostly because of Turkey's dependence
on Russian gas. More important, the two countries share what some call
the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former
provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to
recreate old agreements on spheres of influence. When Mr. Putin gave a
speech in Munich last year challenging the U.S.-led world order, Turks
cheered. The Turkish military even posted it on its Web site. President
Abdullah Gül recently suggested that "a new world order should emerge."
Turkey joined Russia at the height of its war on Georgia in suggesting a
five-party "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." In other
words, they want to keep the U.S. and the EU at arm's length. Both
Russia and Turkey consider Georgia's American-educated president,
Mikheil Saakashvili, to be crazy enough to unleash the next world war.
In that view Turkey is not so far from the positions of France or
Germany -- but even these two countries did not suggest that the
Georgians sign up to a new regional arrangement co-chaired by Russia
while the Kremlin's air force was bombing Georgian cities. Two other
neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- are watching the Turkish-Russian
partnership with concern. Azeris remember how the Turks -- their ethnic
and religious brethren -- left them to be annexed by the Soviets in the
1920s. Armenians already fear their giant neighbor, who they consider to
have committed genocide against them. Neither wants to have to rely on
Iran (once again) as a counterbalance to Russia. Oh, and of course, Iran
had its own sphere-of-influence arrangements with the Soviets as well.
Though Turkey and Iran are historic competitors, Turkey has broken
with NATO countries recently by hosting President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on
a working visit. As the rest of NATO was preoccupied with the Russian
aggression in Georgia, Turkey legitimized the Iranian leader amidst
chants in Istanbul of "death to Israel, death to America." A few days
later, Turkey played host to Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, who is accused of
genocide by the rest of NATO -- but not by Russia or Iran, or by the
Muslim-majority countries who usually claim to care so much about Muslim
lives. Where is Turkey headed? Turkish officials say they are
using their trust-based relations with various sides to act as a
mediator between various parties in the region: the U.S. and Iran;
Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan, etc. It may be so. But as
more American ships steam toward the Black Sea, a time for choosing has
arrived.
Russian Navy planning greater presence in Syria
Boston.com
(August
28, 2008) - The Russian Navy will make more use of Syrian ports
as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian
diplomat said yesterday. The announcement comes as tensions rise between
Moscow and the West over Russia's role in Georgia. President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria backed Russia's recent offensive on Georgia in support
of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week. "Our navy
presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be
visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently," Igor Belyaev,
the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.
"The visits are continuing," he added. Russia relies on Syria's Tartous
port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties
between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism,
when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.
Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including
the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this
month. Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military
agreements with Syria were reached during Assad's meeting with President
Dmitry Medvedev of Russia today. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as
this does not disturb the "regional balance of power." Lavrov was
referring to the position of Israel, which has a superior military and
is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Syria, which is
technically at war with the Jewish state, has embarked on a drive to
upgrade its military in recent years.
Iran's
Ahmadinejad, Russia's Medvedev to hold talks
Tehran Times
(August
25, 2008) - Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will hold talks
with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Dushanbe which begins on
Thursday. Ahmadinejad and Medvedev will talk about strengthening
relations between the two countries and discuss regional and
international issues, the Fars News Agency reported. This is the first
time that two presidents meet each other. The SCO’s eighth conference
will be held on August 28 and 29. It will be attended by the presidents
of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as
its permanent members, the heads of state from Iran, India, Mongolia
plus Pakistani foreign minister as observers, and the leaders of
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan as guests. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental international organization
founded in Shanghai on 15 June 2001 by six countries, China, Russia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member states
cover an area of about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of
1.455 billion. Its working languages are Chinese and Russian. The
organization’s main objectives include strengthening confidence among
the members, increasing political, scientific, cultural, and educational
as well as energy, transportation, tourism cooperation between the
member states.
Explosion severs Azerbaijan-Georgia-Europe fuel railway link
DEBKAfile
(August
24, 2008) - The train hit a mine Sunday, Aug. 24 at the village
of Skra, 5 km west of Gori, on the main track of the railway line
linking Eastern and Western Georgia – a vital trade route for oil
exports from Azerbaijan to European markets. Responsibility for the
sabotage has not been determined. The blast deals a serious blow to
Georgia’s efforts to recover from its ten-day war over South Ossetia in
the face of the continuing Russian military presence. Georgian officials
suggested Russian forces which pulled out of the area two days ago left
a road mine on the railroad. Azerbaijan restored its oil consignments
via Georgia only two days ago; their interruption during the fighting
robbed the Saakasvhili government of valuable revenue, which the attack
has suspended again. In another development Sunday, the guided missile
destroyer USS McFaul docked at the Georgian port of Batumi carrying
supplies such as blankets, hygiene kits and baby food. Two more US ships
are due to dock later this week. The American vessels were supposed
originally to put in at the Black Sea port of Poti, 80 km to the north,
but changed direction to avoid meeting Russian troops who are fortifying
their positions at Poti further up the coast. Russia says it entitled to
keep its forces in a buffer zone around the breakaway territories of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, citing the truce and other international
agreements as covering unspecified “additional security measures,” over
and above their pre-conflict positions. French President Nicolas
Sarkozy, Moscow claims, approved the buffer zones which they organized
before the ceasefire was signed (as revealed by DEBKAfile on Aug. 17)
Russia acknowledges that Poti is outside the ceasefire’s terms and its
peacekeeping mandate. Saturday, the Russian missile cruiser Moskva
returned to its base in Ukraine. DEBKAfile reported on Aug. 20 from
official Russian sources that the warship was part of a large flotilla
heading for the Mediterranean port of Tartus in Syria. The defense
ministry in Moscow later detached the Moskva from the contingent and
sent it back to the Black Sea.
US
concedes Kremlin’s first military response in Georgia was “legitimate”
DEBKAfile
(August
22, 2008) - The US ambassador to Moscow, endorsing Russia's
initial moves in Georgia, described the Kremlin's first military
response as legitimate after Russian troops came under attack. This was
the first positive statement by an American official about Moscow’s
first response to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, after a string
of condemnations from the heads of the Bush administration. It came from
US ambassador John Beyrle, who arrived in Moscow last month, in an
interview published by the Russian daily Kommersant Friday, Aug. 22.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly disclosed Friday in its lead article that Washington
and Moscow are working quietly and intensively to set up a summit
between President George W. Bush and Russian prime minister Vladimir
Putin to bring crisis-ridden US-Russian relations back on an even keel.
(Both Powers Push for a Bush-Putin Summit.) Ambassador Beyrle’s words
were the first public departure by a US official from the critical
remarks of Moscow’s conduct heard uniformly from Bush, Condoleezza Rice
and Robert Gates. The ambassador said Washington had not sanctioned
Georgia’s initial actions when on Aug. 8, after a succession of tense
skirmishes, Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia, triggering a massive
Russian reaction when its peacekeepers came under fire. “We did not want
to see a recourse to violence and force and we made that very, very
clear,” said Beyrle. “The fact that we were trying to convince the
Georgian side not to take this step is clear evidence that we did not
want all this to happen,” he said. DEBKAfile: This was the first US
admission that Georgia was the aggressor in South Ossetia and showed
cracks in their hitherto solid support for president Mikhail
Saakashvili. Beyrle said Washington still supports Russia's bid to join
the World Trade Organization – an official departure from implied
American threats to punish Moscow by international isolation. The US
ambassador’s interview was run in the same Russian paper which quoted
Syrian president Bashar Assad on Wednesday, as announcing he was willing
to accept Russian missile bases in his country. Beyrle’s words look like
a bid to halt the deterioration in Russo-American relations before they
veer out of control in a second global arena. In another telling remark,
the US ambassador said: “We have seen the destruction of civilian
infrastructure, as well as calls by some Russian politicians to change
the democratically-elected government of Georgia. That is why we believe
that Russia has gone too far.” The subtext here, say DEBKAfile’s
sources, is that if Moscow continues to pull troops out of Georgia and
does not threaten the country’s integrity and regime, Russian and US
leaders can do business.
NATO Says Russia Has Cut All Military Ties With Western Alliance
Fox News
(August 21, 2008) - Russia has halted all
military cooperation with NATO, the Western alliance said Thursday, in
the latest sign of East-West tension over the invasion of Georgia. NATO
spokeswoman Carmen Romero said the alliance had received notification
through military channels that Russia's Defense Ministry had taken a
decision "to halt international military cooperation events between
Russia and NATO countries until further instructions." She said NATO
"takes note" of the decision, but had no further reaction. On Tuesday,
NATO foreign ministers said they would make further ties with Russia
dependent on Moscow making good on a pledge to pull its troops back to
pre-conflict positions in Georgia. However, they stopped short of
calling an immediate halt to all cooperation. Under a 2002 agreement
that set up the NATO-Russia Council, the former Cold War foes began
several cooperation projects. They include sharing expertise to combat
heroin trafficking out of Afghanistan, developing battlefield
anti-missile technology, joint exercises and help with rescue at sea.
Romero said she was unaware of any specific events under the cooperation
agreement scheduled before early September. NATO itself decided last
week to suspend plans for a Russian warship to join NATO
counterterrorism patrols in the Mediterranean Sea, deciding it was
inappropriate in the wake of the eruption of fighting in Georgia.
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance
with Russia Times Online
(August 21, 2008) - Syria raised the
prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking
fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he
arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are
ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its
security.” The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia
really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself
closed in a circle.” Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the
deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also
interested in buying Russian weapons. In return Moscow is expected to
propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of
Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the
Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies
during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised
the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western
alliance with former Soviet bloc allies. Many in Israel fear that the
Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers
to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And
with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia
appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria. Already, Israeli
observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies
to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater
energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn
allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use
Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed
Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the
Middle East and increase arms sales. Syria and Israel recently confirmed
they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades
of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international
isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A
closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out
of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could
encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by
Israel in 1967, by force. The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech
with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader,
over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the
Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal
Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with
Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards. “Gal
Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost
because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts
and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed. “What
happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking
to entangle in dangerous adventures.”
Russia sends aircraft carrier to Syria
Barents Observer
(August 20, 2008) - The Russian aircraft
carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the
Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after
Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the
area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s
only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission
will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines,
Newsru.com reports. President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week
expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia.
He also expressed interest in the establishment of Russian missile air
defence facilities on his land. The “Admiral Kuznetsov” also last year
headed a navy mission to the Mediterranean. Then, on the way from the
Kola Peninsula and south, it stopped in the North Sea where it conducted
a navy training exercise in the immediate vicinity of Norwegian offshore
installations.
Norway: Russia to cut all military ties with NATO
Associated Press
(August 20, 2008) - Russia has informed
Norway that it plans to suspend all military ties with NATO, Norway's
Defense Ministry said Wednesday, a day after the military alliance urged
Moscow to withdraw its forces from Georgia. NATO foreign ministers said
Tuesday they would make further ties with Russia dependent on Moscow
making good on a pledge to pull its troops back to pre-conflict
positions in Georgia. However, they stopped short of calling an
immediate halt to all cooperation. The Nordic country's embassy in
Moscow received a telephone call from "a well-placed official in the
Russian Ministry of Defense," who said Moscow plans "to freeze all
military cooperation with NATO and allied countries," Espen Barth Eide,
state secretary with the Norwegian ministry said. Eide told The
Associated Press that the Russian official notified Norway it will
receive a written note about this soon. He said Norwegian diplomats in
Moscow would meet Russian officials on Thursday morning to clarify the
implications of the freeze. "It is our understanding that other NATO
countries will receive similar notes," Eide said. The ministry said the
Russian official is known to the embassy, but Norway declined to provide
a name or any further identifying information. A Kremlin official
declined to comment on the report, and the Russian ambassador to NATO
did not reply to messages left on his cell phone. But the Interfax news
agency, citing what it called a military-diplomatic source in Moscow
whom it did not identify, reported that Russia is reviewing its 2008
military cooperation plans with NATO. Officials at NATO headquarters in
Brussels said Moscow had not informed the alliance it was taking such a
step. Washington described the reported move as unfortunate. more...
As US Looks to Improve Ties, Libya Positions Itself in Russia’s Corner
CNS News
(August 19, 2008) - At a time when the U.S.
is moving towards full normalization of relations with Libya, Muammar
Gaddafi’s son has made it clear that the North African nation is looking
to Russia as its strategic partner. In a little-noticed interview with
Russia’s Kommersant business daily, Seif al-Islam Gaddafi said Moscow’s
resurgence, demonstrated by this month’s military incursion into
Georgia, was a positive development for the Arab world. “What happened
in Georgia is a good sign, which means America is no longer the sole
world power setting the rules of the game,” Gaddafi said. “Now there is
balance in the world. Russia is being reborn, and we value that. It is
very good for us, for all of the Middle East,” he said. Gaddafi, who
runs a charity called the Gaddafi Foundation, has frequently undertaken
diplomatic missions on behalf of his father. The second oldest of seven
sons, the 35-year-old is sometimes named as a possible successor to the
unpredictable Libyan leader but has denied ambitions to rule the north
African country – a position he reiterated in the Kommersant interview.
The published interview appeared on the same day that the U.S.
government announced a breakthrough agreement with Libya on compensation
for terror victims, paving the way for the full normalization of
bilateral ties. Asked whether his strong statements were not risking
Libya’s newly-improved ties with the U.S., Gaddafi told the Russian
paper that although his country has good relations with both the West
and Russia, “Libya chose Russia as its strategic partner.” “Of course,
Russia is our strategic partner, and we cannot compare it with any other
country for closeness. That’s obvious.” Gaddafi said Libya backed
Moscow’s position that Georgia had initiated the recent conflict – by
mounting an offensive against separatists in a Russian-backed breakaway
province – and forced a Russian military response. Libya would back
Russia in the U.N. Security Council, he said. Libya, which has been
improving relations with the West since pledging to stop supporting
terrorism and shutting down its non-conventional weapons programs, in
January began a two-year stint on the council. Its conduct there has at
times drawn strong criticism. more...
Report warns of global fallout from invasion of Georgia, faults U.S.
intelligence World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's invasion of
Georgia demonstrated Moscow's growing power and is making waves in the
Middle East, a report by a leading U.S. analyst said. The report by the
Institute for Contemporary Affairs asserted that Iran would be
emboldened by Moscow's successful military campaign. "The long-term
outcomes of the current Russian-Georgian war will be felt far and wide,
from Afghanistan to Iran, and from the Caspian to the Mediterranean,"
the report, titled "The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the
Middle East," said. "The war is a mid-sized earthquake which indicates
that the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and nations in
the Middle East, including Israel, need to take notice." Authored by
Ariel Cohen, the report said Russia's strategic goals included
increasing control of energy pipelines to Turkey. Cohen also warned
Israel not to provoke Moscow or rely on U.S. support against Iran,
Middle East Newsline reported. "U.S. expressions of support of
the kind provided to Georgia — short of an explicit mutual defense pact
— may or may not result in military assistance if/when Israel is under
attack, especially when the attacker has an effective deterrent, such as
nuclear arms deliverable against U.S. targets," the report said. "In
the future, such an attacker could be Iran or an Arab country armed with
atomic weapons. Israel can and should rely on its own deterrent — a
massive survivable second-strike capability." The report criticized
the U.S. intelligence community, which failed to detect Russian
efforts to annex Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Cohen, who
warned that Ukraine was Moscow's next target, said the Bush
administration did not prepare the Georgian military for a Russian
attack. "This is something to remember when looking at recent American
intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the
unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against
Hamas," Cohen said. Cohen said a pro-Russian regime in Georgia would
result in Moscow's full control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
and the Baku-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, both of which reach Turkey.
Israel has been receiving some of its oil from Ceyhan and has a "stake
in the smooth flow of oil from the Caspian." The report said Russia
financed and armed the Russian ethnic community in Georgia to foment
unrest. Cohen compared this to Iran's use of proxies to attack Israel
from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. "This use of small, ethnically-based
proxies is similar to Iran's use of Hizbullah and Hamas to continuously
attack Israel," the report said. "Tbilisi tried for years to deal
with these militias by offering a negotiated solution, including full
autonomy within Georgia." Cohen, a senior researcher at the
Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said Russia plans to extend its
influence throughout the Middle East. He cited Russian Navy bases in the
Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartous and plans to establish a presence in
Libya. "Clearly, with the renewal of East-West tensions as a result of
Russia's moves against Georgia, it will be much more difficult to obtain
Moscow's agreement to enhance sanctions and international pressures on
Iran," the report said. "The struggle to diplomatically halt its
[Iran's] nuclear program will become far more difficult."
Top Russian general names Israel as Georgian arms supplier
The Jerusalem Post
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's deputy army
chief, Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, accused Israel on Tuesday of arming
the Georgian military with mines, explosive charges, special explosives
for clearing minefields and eight kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles. "In
2007, Israeli experts trained Georgian commandos in Georgia and there
were plans to supply heavy weaponry, electronic weapons, tanks and other
arms at a later date, but the deal didn't work out," Nogovitsyn told a
Moscow press conference. Nogovitsyn also said that the Russian soldiers
had detained 20 mercenaries near the Georgian city of Poti, including
three Arabs, all wearing Georgian army uniforms. Nogovitsyn also said
that Israeli troops in 2007 had trained Georgian commando troops. He
added that Russia had begun pulling its troops out of Georgia on Monday,
in accordance with the French-brokered ceasefire. Georgia's Deputy
Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said that Georgian corporals and sergeants
train with German alpine units, the navy work with French instructors
and special operations and urban warfare troops are taught by Israelis.
An Israeli defense official told The Jerusalem Post recently that Israel
had rejected frequent requests for arms from Georgia in the months
leading up to the outbreak of hostilities with Russia. "Several months
ago, we carried out an evaluation of the situation in Georgia and
realized that Georgia and Russia were on a collision course. We have
good relations with both, and don't want to back either in this
conflict," the official said. "We therefore made a decision to
drastically minimize sales of weapons to Georgia." Some of the Israeli
sales with Georgia in the past included night-vision equipment, rifles
and unmanned drones for gathering intelligence. Israel did not agree,
however, to upgrade the drones to those that possess high
intelligence-gathering capabilities, the defense officials said.
Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who
is fluent in Hebrew, and is said to have contributed to military
cooperation.
Lisbon treaty would have helped in Georgia crisis, says France
EU Observer
(August 18, 2008) - French president
Nicolas Sarkozy has used the ongoing crisis between Russia and Georgia
to put the case for the EU's new treaty, currently facing ratification
difficulties. In an opinion piece in Monday's edition of French daily Le
Figaro, Mr. Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU's six month presidency,
wrote that the Lisbon Treaty would have given the bloc the tools it
needed to handle the Moscow-Tbilisi war. "It is notable that had the
Lisbon Treaty, which is in the process of being ratified, already been
in force, the European Union would have had the institutions it needs to
cope with international crises." He named the most important innovations
as being the "stable" European Council President - instead of the
current half-yearly system - " a High Representative endowed with a real
European diplomatic service and considerable financial means in order to
put decisions into force in coordination with member states. " The short
pitch for the Lisbon Treaty also revealed a little how the French
president views the role of the EU's first long-term president of the EU
- a post that can be held for up to five years. The treaty itself is
ambiguous about the president's exact role with the potential for
conflict rife with member states and EU officials divided about whether
the position should be ceremonial or have real teeth. Entwined in this
question is how much the president should represent the EU in external
policy, a policy area that is foreseen for the EU's foreign policy
chief. In the Figaro article, Mr. Sarkozy suggests that the president's
position in such crises as the Russia-Georgia one would be one of
"acting in close consultation with the heads of state and government
most affected." This would very much put the President in the foreign
policy field. It would also foresee a formal hierarchy among member
states as it would give priority to those considered most affected. This
kind of scenario has been predicted by some smaller member states who
fear that the president would have an all-powerful role, reducing the
say of certain governments, although the working principle of the bloc
is that member states are equal. But Mr. Sarkozy's words of support for
the Lisbon Treaty come amid doubt that it will ever come into force.
Although ratified by the vast majority of national parliaments, it was
rejected by Irish voters in a referendum in June. All member states need
to ratify the document for it to go into place. At the moment, Dublin is
considering its options. It could either put the treaty to another
referendum or try and figure out a legal contortion allowing it to use
parliamentary ratification only. But the January 2009 deadline by which
governments had hoped to have the treaty in place is certain to be
missed.
Russia: Poland risks attack due to U.S. missiles
MSNBC
(August 15, 2008) - A top Russian general
said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor
base exposed the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear
weapons, the Interfax news agency reported. The statement by Gen.
Anatoly Nogovitsyn was the strongest threat that Russia issued against
the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite
nations. Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for
Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the
United States said was aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations.
Moscow, however, felt it was aimed at Russia's missile force. "Poland,
by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,"
Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying. He added,
in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine
sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries
having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that
would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said,
according to Interfax. At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn
had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing
missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an
unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement
substantially stepped up a war of words. more...
Lebanon, Syria open diplomatic relations
The Jordanian Times
(August 15, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar
Assad and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman agreed on Wednesday to
establish diplomatic relations between their countries at ambassadorial
level, a Syrian official said. Damascus has been under pressure from the
United States and other governments including France to treat its
smaller neighbour more as a sovereign state by taking steps including
opening a Beirut embassy and demarcating borders with Lebanon. "The two
presidents... have instructed their foreign ministers to take the
necessary steps in this regard, starting from today," Buthaina Shaaban,
an adviser to President Assad said. Syria had dominated Lebanon until
the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri triggered
pressure for it to end a 29-year military presence in the country.
Sleiman, who had been army chief before his election, was received at a
hilltop palace overlooking Damascus. He was appointed head of Lebanon's
military when Syria still controlled the country and describes his ties
with Damascus as excellent. The two countries announced last month in
Paris that they intended to open diplomatic relations for the first time
since they gained independence in 1943. Wednesday's agreement formally
set those ties on the highest level. It was Sleiman's first visit to
Syria since his election in May as part of a Qatari-mediated deal that
defused a bitter political conflict between an anti-Syrian majority
coalition and an alliance of groups backed by Damascus. Syrian Foreign
Minister Walid Mouallem told Lebanon's As-Safir newspaper that Sleiman's
visit was "a starting point and a true foundation for future relations".
Syria's opponents in Lebanon, including Saudi-backed politician Saad
Hariri, have accused Damascus of assassinating Rafiq Hariri and other
anti-Syrian figures and fomenting instability since its withdrawal.
Syria denies the allegations. more...
Iran, Turkey fail to reach deal on new pipeline
Associated Press
(August 14, 2008) - Iran and Turkey signed
several cooperation agreements Thursday but failed to complete a deal
for building a new natural gas pipeline — a project the United States
has opposed. Washington argues an energy deal by NATO ally Turkey with
Iran would send the wrong message while the West threatens Tehran with
new economic sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. The
West believe Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran
denies. On Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish
President Abdullah Gul witnessed the public signing of a series of
agreements for cooperation in anti-drug efforts, environmental matters,
transportation, tourism and culture. The two nations also issued a joint
statement stressing their determination for further cooperation in
energy but they couldn't come to agreement on construction of the
proposed gas pipeline. "There are some snags," Turkey's interior
minister, Besir Atalay, said without providing any details. Turkish
Energy Minister Hilmi Guler said that "the negotiations will continue"
on the pipeline project, which is aimed at ensuring reliable supply of
Iranian natural gas to Turkey. Turkey already receives gas through an
existing pipeline from Iran, but its flow often is sporadic during the
winter. Relations between Turkey and Iran improved since Turkey's
Islamic-rooted governing party took power in 2002. Previous Turkish
governments had accused Iran of trying to export radical Islam to
secular Turkey, which hopes to join the European Union. The United
States also opposes plans for Turkish investment in Iran's South Pars
gas fields and the possibility of the Islamic Republic selling its gas
to European markets via an existing pipeline that carries gas to Europe
through Turkey.
Russian Tanks Head for Tbilisi, Georgia, Despite Ceasefire Pledge
Bridges for Peace
(August 13, 2008) - Hours after a European
Union ceasefire between Georgia and Russia appeared to be taking shape,
Russian tanks rolled into the Georgian city of Gori on August 13, later
pressing deeper as they headed towards the capital Tbilisi. To the west,
Abkhazian separatist forces backed by Russian forces pushed out Georgian
troops and even moved into Georgian territory itself, defiantly planting
a flag and laughing that retreating Georgians had received American
training in running away. The developments came less than 12 hours after
Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvilli said he accepted in principle a
cease-fire plan brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy who arrived
in the region and met with both Georgian and Russian leaders in an
effort to restore calm. On Tuesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
declared that Russia would halt all of its military activities in
Georgia. About 50 Russian tanks entered Gori on Wednesday morning,
according to a top Georgian official, Alexander Lomaia. The city of
50,000 sits on Georgia's only significant east-west road near the South
Ossetia border, a region where fierce fighting has taken place. Russia's
deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn insisted
Wednesday that no tanks were in Gori, adding that Russians went into the
city to try to implement the truce with local Georgian officials but
could not find any. The EU peace plan's concept of having both sides
retreat to their original positions was running into the stark reality
of Russian dominance on the battlefield.
Ahmadinejad in new Israel tirade before Turkey trip
Reuters
(August 13, 2008) - Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a fresh verbal attack on Israel on
Wednesday on the eve of a visit to Israel's close ally Turkey, saying
Western countries should not support the Jewish state. The comments
highlight the difficult path which Turkey, a member of NATO, must follow
during the two-day visit which reflects its desire to remain on good
terms with its neighbor and secure future energy needs. "Western
countries should not support them (Israel) so much. The life of this
regime has come to an end," Ahmadinejad said in comments translated into
Turkish in a live interview broadcast by Turkey's NTV and CNN Turk
channels. "Our position is clear on this issue. A referendum should take
place in Palestine. If they withdraw from invaded lands it would be a
good step," he said. Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister
Tayyip Erdogan have come under criticism at home and abroad for inviting
Ahmadinejad. Ankara has said his visit was necessary given a standoff
between Iran and the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear enrichment
program, but analysts said the visit was more about ensuring
centuries-old ties during a period of global tensions. Ahmadinejad said
the talks on Iran's nuclear program were on a "good path".
'Syria and Hizbullah gaining strength'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 12, 2008) - Defense Minister Ehud
Barak said on Tuesday that "it is not a coincidence that the IDF is
holding intensive drills in the Golan Heights," adding that UNSC
Resolution 1701 was not accomplishing what it set out to do. "Hizbullah
has gained significant strength in the last couple of years," said Barak
during an IDF Armored Corps drill in the North. "We are closely
following a possible violation [of the resolution] caused by the
transfer of advanced weapons systems from Syria to Hizbullah. The
necessary preparations have been made, and regarding all the rest - I
always prefer not to talk, rather to take action when the time comes."
Barak expressed optimism with regards to the IDF's capabilities. "The
army is regaining its strength, and coming back to the right morals,
carrying out the right exercises and it is our obligation as the
government to ensure that the proper means are available to carry out
such drills in a correct and intensive manner." Referring to a proposed
budget cut to the Defense Ministry, Barak said: "We live in a country
where security and defense consist not just of tanks and planes, but
also of fostering excellence and caring for the population through
education and social welfare." Nonetheless, Barak emphasized that
"security and defense take precedence over quality of life and in a
country such as ours, we do not have the luxury of cutting the defense
budget." The defense minister also addressed the Gaza ceasefire and the
strengthening of the group. "So far, the ceasefire has proved
promising," he said. "There have been ten instances where rockets were
launched in the past 6 weeks, compared to the hundreds of attacks that
occurred in the past. Every week that passes with the ceasefire in place
enables us to gain strength and to maximize the possibility or the
probability of bringing about the right conditions for the release of
[captured IDF soldier] Gilad Schalit. Barak added that "in the meantime,
the government must care for the social and economic infrastructure as
well as the preparation of the home front in the Gaza periphery and the
surrounding areas. more...
Ex-communist states' backing for Georgia rooted in Soviet trauma
Breitbart.com
(August 12, 2008) - A traumatic history at
the hands of the Kremlin and enduring fears of Russia are the root of
the staunch backing for Georgia offered by Poland, the Baltic states and
Ukraine, analysts say. In an unusual step Tuesday the leaders of
ex-communist Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine went to
Georgia for what they called a called a show of support for the former
Soviet republic after Russia's assault. "Our visit is a sign of the
solidarity of our five countries with the Georgian nation, which has
been a victim of aggression," Poland's President Lech Kaczynski told
reporters. "Once again, Russia has shown its true face," he said. On
Saturday, Poland and the Baltic states had as "former captive nations"
of the Soviet Union issued a joint statement calling on the EU and NATO
to oppose Russia's "imperialist" policy towards Georgia. Fear of Russia
cuts deep, said Bartosz Cichocki, an expert at the Polish Institute for
International Affairs. "These nations still remember how in 1939 the
Soviet army crossed into their territory to purportedly defend the
rights of ethnic minorities," he said, referring to the invasion at the
start of World War II, when Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union sealed a
pact to carve up Poland and the Baltic states. "And they still remember
their dependence on Moscow," which lasted five decades, he told AFP.
Poland, which broke free from Moscow's orbit in 1989, and the Baltic
states, which like Georgia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union
until it collapsed 1991, are all firm supporters of Tbilisi. "In the
Baltic states and Ukraine, independence is still seen as something
fragile and not necessarily built to last. So if it's not defended
actively, it can't last," Cichocki explained. Poland and the Baltic
states are solidly anchored in the West. Warsaw joined NATO in 1999 and
the EU in 2004, while the Baltic trio entered both in 2004. They back
Georgia and Ukraine's efforts to obtain what they see as those crucial
shields. "People are certainly afraid that Russia could attack Lithuania
just like Georgia. And you see that kind of view among politicians,"
said Lithuanian political scientist Kestutis Girnius. While arguments
rage between Moscow and Tbilisi about who started fighting, Poland and
the Baltic states see Georgians as the victims. "We're Georgia's closest
friend in the region. We've suffered the same kind of violence," senior
Lithuanian foreign ministry official Zygimantas Pavilionis told AFP. The
Baltic states were scarred by Soviet rule. On June 14, 1941, tens of
thousands of their people were herded onto cattle trains and shipped out
to the far eastern reaches of the Soviet Union, where many died.
Moscow's deportation drive was cut short when the Nazis turned on their
erstwhile allies on June 22, 1941, pushing the Red Army out of the
Baltic states as they invaded the Soviet Union. In 1944, however, the
Soviets ended the Nazis' own bloody occupation, and began a new wave of
deportations lasting into the 1950s. Poles, meanwhile, remember the
Soviet killing of some 22,000 Polish POWs in 1940 in what became known
as the Katyn massacre, as well as the brutality of communist rule after
the war. more...
My Latvia (Part 1 of 2):
0:09:58 My Latvia (Part 2 of 2):
0:07:58
Georgia claims Russians have cut country in half
Associated Press
(August 11, 2008) - Russian tanks roared
deep into Georgia on Monday, launching a new western front in the
conflict, and Russian planes staged air raids that sent people screaming
and fleeing for cover in some towns. Russian forces for the first time
moved well outside the two restive, pro-Russian provinces claimed by
Georgia that lie at the heart of the dispute. An Associated Press
reporter saw Russian troops in control of government buildings in this
town just miles from the frontier and Russian troops were reported in
nearby Senaki. Georgia's president said his country had been sliced in
half with the capture of a critical highway crossroads near the central
city of Gori, and Russian warplanes launched new air raids across the
country. The Russian Defense Ministry, through news agencies, denied it
had captured Gori and also denied any intentions to advance on the
Georgian capital of Tbilisi. In New York, the United Nations Security
Council held an emergency session at Georgia's request, the fifth
meeting on the fighting in as many days. The western assault expanded
the days-old war beyond the central breakaway region of South Ossetia,
where a crackdown by Georgia last week drew a military response from
Russia. While most Georgian forces were still busy fighting there,
Russian troops opened the western attack by invading from a second
separatist province, Abkhazia, that occupies Georgia's coastal northwest
arm. Russian forces moved into Senaki, 20 miles inland from the Black
Sea, and seized police stations in Zugdidi, just outside the southern
fringe of Abkhazia. Abkhazian allies took control of the nearby village
of Kurga, according to witnesses and Georgian officials. The Georgian
president, Mikhail Saakashvili, told CNN late Monday that Russian forces
were cleansing Abkhazia of ethnic Georgians. "I directly accuse Russia
of ethnic cleansing," he said. At the U.N. on Friday, each side accused
the other of ethnic cleansing. By late Monday, Russian news agencies,
citing the Defense Ministry, said troops had left Senaki, 20 miles
inland from the Black Sea port of Poti, "after liquidating the danger,"
but did not give details. The new assault came despite a claim earlier
in the day by a top Russian general that Russia had no plans to enter
undisputed Georgian territory. Both provinces of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia have run their own affairs without international recognition
since fighting to split from Georgia in the early 1990, and both have
close ties with Moscow. When Georgia began its offensive to regain
control over South Ossetia, the Russian response was swift and
overpowering — thousands of troops and tanks poured in. Georgia had
pledged a cease-fire, but it rang hollow Monday. An AP reporter saw a
small group of Georgian fighters open fire on a column of Russian and
Ossetian military vehicles outside Tskhinvali, triggering a 30-minute
battle. The Russians later said all the Georgians were killed.
more...
Russia Deploys Ships, Expands Georgia Bombing Blitz
Fox News
(August 10, 2008) - Russia battled Georgian
forces on land and sea, reports said late Sunday, despite a Georgian
cease-fire offer and its claim to be withdrawing from South Ossetia, the
separatist Georgian province battered by days of intense fighting.
Russia claimed to have sunk a Georgian boat that was trying to attack
Russian vessels in the Black Sea, and Georgian officials said Russia
sent tanks from South Ossetia into Georgia proper, heading toward a
strategic city before being turned back. Russian planes on Sunday twice
bombed an area near the Georgian capital's airport, officials said. The
violence appeared to show gargantuan Russia's determination to subdue
diminutive, U.S.-backed Georgia, even at the risk of international
reproach. Russia fended off a wave of international calls to observe
Georgia's cease-fire, saying it must first be assured that Georgian
troops have indeed pulled back from South Ossetia. International envoys
were heading in to try to end the conflict before it spreads throughout
the Caucasus, a region plagued by ethnic tensions. But it was unclear
what inducements or pressure the envoys could bring to bear, or to what
extent either side was truly sensitive to world opinion. Georgian
President Mikhail Saakashvili said one of the Russian raids on the
airport area came a half hour before the arrival of the foreign
ministers of France and Finland — in the country to try to mediate.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Temur Yakobashvili said Russian
tanks tried to cross from South Ossetia into the territory of Georgia
proper, but were turned back by Georgian forces. He said the tanks
apparently were trying to approach Gori, but did not fire on the city of
about 50,000 that sits on Georgia's only significant east-west highway.
Russia also sent naval vessels to patrol off Georgia's Black Sea coast,
but denied Sunday that the move was aimed at establishing a blockade.
The ITAR-Tass news agency quoted a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman as
saying that Georgian missile boats twice tried to attack Russian ships,
which fired back and sank one of the Georgian vessels. South Ossetia
broke away from Georgian control in 1992. Russia granted passports to
most of its residents and the region's separatist leaders sought to
absorb the region into Russia. Georgia, whose troops have been trained
by American soldiers, began an offensive to regain control over South
Ossetia overnight Friday, launching heavy rocket and artillery fire and
air strikes that pounded the regional capital Tskhinvali. Georgia says
it was responding to attacks by separatists. In response, Russia
launched massive artillery shelling and air attacks on Georgian troops.
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said more than 2,000
people had been killed in South Ossetia since Friday, most of them
Ossetians with Russian passports. The figures could not be independently
confirmed. The scope of Russia's military response has the Bush
administration deeply worried. "We have made it clear to the Russians
that if the disproportionate and dangerous escalation on the Russian
side continues, that this will have a significant long-term impact on
U.S.-Russian relations," U.S. deputy national security adviser Jim
Jeffrey told reporters. The U.S. military began flying 2,000 Georgian
troops home from Iraq after Georgia recalled them, even while calling
for a truce. "Georgia expresses its readiness to immediately start
negotiations with the Russian Federation on a cease-fire and termination
of hostilities," the Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement,
adding that it had notified Russia's envoy to Tbilisi. But Russia
insisted Georgian troops were continuing their attacks. Alexander
Darchiev, Russia's charge d'affairs in Washington, said Georgian
soldiers were "not withdrawing but regrouping, including heavy armor and
increased attacks on Tskhinvali." "Mass mobilization is still under
way," he told CNN's "Late Edition." President Bush sought to contain the
conflict in Georgia on Sunday as the White House warned that "Russian
aggression must not go unanswered." Bush, in Beijing for the Olympics,
has pressed for international mediation and reached out Sunday to French
President Nicolas Sarkozy, who heads the European Union. The two agreed
on the need for a cease-fire and a respect for Georgia's integrity, a
White House spokesman said. more...
'Hizbullah received advanced launchers'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 10, 2008) - The senior aide to
Syrian President Bashar Assad who was assassinated last weekend had been
in charge of supplying Hizbullah with advanced anti-aircraft weaponry,
the Sunday Times reported. According to the report, Brig.-Gen. Muhammad
Suleiman had provided the guerrilla group with advanced Syrian SA-8
anti-aircraft missiles, Middle Eastern sources told the paper. Such
missiles could potentially challenge the IAF reconnaissance flights
which are currently conducted unhindered over Lebanon. Last week,
Lebanon's new Cabinet unanimously approved a draft policy statement
which could secure Hizbullah's existence as an armed organization and
guarantee its right to "liberate or recover occupied lands." "The
Cabinet unanimously approved the draft," Information Minister Tarek
Mitri told reporters after the five-hour meeting at the presidential
palace in a Beirut suburb last Monday. Government sources in Jerusalem
said the decision would make the government in Beirut an accomplice to
any Hizbullah aggression and give Israel the right to hold it
responsible. During the Second Lebanon War, Israel came under
international pressure not to harm Lebanon's infrastructure because it
was Hizbullah, not the Lebanese government, that killed several IDF
soldiers and kidnapped reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in the
July 2006 cross border raid which sparked the conflict.
War in Georgia: The Israeli connection
YNet News
(August 10, 2008) - For past seven years,
Israeli companies have been helping Gerogian army to preparer for war
against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and
security advice. The fighting which broke out over the weekend between
Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the
region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of
advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's
infantry forces. The Defense Ministry held a special meeting Sunday to
discuss the various arms deals held by Israelis in Georgia, but no
change in policy has been announced as of yet. "The subject is closely
monitored," said sources in the Defense Ministry. "We are not operating
in any way which may counter Israeli interests. We have turned down many
requests involving arms sales to Georgia; and the ones which have been
approves have been duly scrutinized. So far, we have placed no
limitations on the sale of protective measures." Israel began selling
arms to Georgia about seven years ago following an initiative by
Georgian citizens who immigrated to Israel and became businesspeople.
"They contacted defense industry officials and arms dealers and told
them that Georgia had relatively large budgets and could be interested
in purchasing Israeli weapons," says a source involved in arms exports.
The military cooperation between the countries developed swiftly. The
fact that Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former
Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew contributed to this cooperation. "His
door was always open to the Israelis who came and offered his country
arms systems made in Israel," the source said. "Compared to countries in
Eastern Europe, the deals in this country were conducted fast, mainly
due to the defense minister's personal involvement." Israelis' activity
in Georgia and the deals they struck there were all authorized by the
Defense Ministry. Israel viewed Georgia as a friendly state to which
there is no reason not to sell arms systems similar to those Israel
exports to other countries in the world. As the tension between Russia
and Georgia grew, however, increasing voices were heard in Israel –
particularly in the Foreign Ministry – calling on the Defense Ministry
to be more selective in the approval of the deals with Georgia for fear
that they would anger Russia. "It was clear that too many unmistakable
Israeli systems in the possesion of the Georgian army would be like a
red cloth in the face of a raging bull as far as Russia is concerned,"
explained a source in the defense establishment. For inctance, the
Russians viewed the operation of the Elbit System's RPVs as a real
provocation. "It was clear that the Russians were angry," says a defense
establishment source, "and that the interception of three of these RPVs
in the past three months was an expression of this anger. Not everyone
in Israel understood the sensitive nerve Israel touched when it supplied
such an advanced arms system to a country whose relations with Russia
are highly tense." more...
Russia, Georgia Risk Larger War as Attacks Continue Into Morning
Fox News
(August 8, 2008) - Russia dispatched an
armored column into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia on Friday
after Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, launched a surprise offensive to
crush separatists. Witnesses said hundreds of civilians were killed.
Fighting reportedly raged well into the night with Georgia's interior
ministry saying early Saturday that warplanes attacked three Georgian
military bases and key facilities for shipping oil to the West. The
fighting, which devastated the capital of Tskhinvali, threatened to
ignite a wider war between Georgia and Russia, and escalate tensions
between Moscow and Washington. Georgia said it was forced to launch the
assault because of rebel attacks; the separatists alleged Georgia
violated a cease-fire. "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined
buildings, in cars," said Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, who had fled with her
family to Dzhava, a village near the border with Russia. "It's
impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left
undamaged." The fighting broke out as much of the world's attention was
focused on the start of the Olympic Games and many leaders, including
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Bush, were in
Beijing. The timing suggested Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili may
have been counting on surprise to fulfill his longtime pledge to wrest
back control of South Ossetia — a key to his hold on power. The rebels
seek to unite with North Ossetia, which is part of Russia. Saakashvili
agreed the timing was not coincidental, but accused Russia of being the
aggressor. "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays," he told
CNN. "Brilliant moment to attack a small country." Seeking to prevent an
all-out war, diplomats issued a flurry of statements calling on both
sides to halt the fighting. The U.N. Security Council held two tense
emergency sessions 12 hours apart with both sides using the forum to
launch accusations. As the meeting recessed, officials promised a third
council session Saturday. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged
Russia to halt aircraft and missile attacks and withdraw combat forces
from Georgian territory. Rice said in a statement the United States
wants Russia to respect Georgian sovereignty and agree to international
mediation. The leader of South Ossetia's rebel government, Eduard
Kokoity, said about 1,400 people were killed in the onslaught, the
Interfax news agency reported. The toll could not be independently
confirmed. As night fell, there were conflicting claims as to who held
the battlefield advantage. Saakashvili said "Georgian military forces
completely control all the territory of South Ossetia" except for a
northern section adjacent to Russia. But Russian news agencies cited a
Russian military official as saying heavy fighting was under way on the
outskirts of the regional capital. It was unclear what might persuade
either side to stop shooting. Both claim the battle started after the
other side violated a cease-fire that had been declared just hours
earlier after a week of sporadic clashes. The United States was sending
in its top Caucasus envoy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew
Bryza, to try to end the bloodshed. It was the worst outbreak of
hostilities since the province won de facto independence in a war
against Georgia that ended in 1992. Russian troops went in as
peacekeepers but Georgia alleges they now back the separatists. "We are
facing Russian aggression," said Georgia's Security Council chief Kakha
Lomaya. "They have sent in their troops and weapons and they are bombing
our towns." Putin warned in the early stages of the conflict that the
Georgian attack would draw retaliation and the Defense Ministry pledged
to protect South Ossetians, most of whom have Russian citizenship.
Chairing a session of his Security Council in the Kremlin, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev also vowed that Moscow will protect Russian
citizens. "In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as
president of Russia, am obliged to protect lives and dignity of Russian
citizens wherever they are located," Medvedev said. "We won't allow the
death of our compatriots go unpunished." On Friday, an AP reporter saw
tanks and other heavy weapons concentrating on the Russian side of the
border with South Ossetia — supporting the reports of an incursion. Some
villagers were fleeing into Russia. more...
Energy ties deepen between Iran and Turkey
Gas And Oil
(August 7, 2008) - The United States has
maintained various sanctions against Iran since 1979, implemented in
aftermath of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. As relations
worsen between the US and Iran, Washington is seeking to have the United
Nations Security Council impose additional sanctions on Iran for its
nuclear enrichment activities, which Tehran insists are legal, entirely
peaceful, and intended for generating electricity. Among the sanctions
that most concern foreign energy companies and nations is the 1996
Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), renewed in 2001, which provides for
punitive measures against entities that invest more than $20 mm (EUR 13
mm) annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. Many countries are
deeply ambivalent toward the US policy, none more so than Turkey, which
imports 90% of its energy needs. Now Ankara is pushing the limits by
increasing its natural gas purchases from Iran and considering possible
involvement in developing the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves. On
July 29 Iranian Petroleum Minister Qolam Hosein Nozari said in Tehran
that Turkey and Iran were negotiating over Turkey being a transit
corridor for Iranian natural gas exports to Europe and that Iran would
provide increased amounts of natural gas to Turkey during the winter (Anadolu
Ajansi, June 30). According to Nozari, the pipeline, which would run
from Iran’s South Pars natural gas and oil fields to the border province
of Bazargan, was discussed during the OPEC summit held on June 22 in
Jeddah (Tehran Times, June 29). Even worse for administration officials
seeking to sustain and intensify the US sanctions regime, Nozari said,
“We have also spoken about the participation of Turkey in the
development of phases 14 and 23 of the South Pars field” (Hurriyet, June
30). The 3,745 sq-mile Persian Gulf South Pars-North Dome gas condensate
field, straddling Iranian and Qatari territorial waters, is the world’s
largest known gas field. Discovered by the National Iranian Oil Company
(NIOC) in 1990, Iran’s sector, known as South Pars, covers 1,428 sq
miles, with the site’s remaining 2,317 sq miles, North Dome, lying in
Qatari waters. South Pars-North Dome has estimated reserves of
approximately 51 tcm of natural gas and 50 bn barrels of condensate;
with in-place reserves equivalent to 360 bn barrels of oil. South
Pars-North Dome is the world’s biggest conventional hydrocarbon
accretion, dwarfing even Saudi Arabia’s 170 bn barrel Ghawar oil field
(Middle East Economic Survey, March 20, 2006). Phase 14, due to begin
production in 2014, is part of a $10 bn (EUR 6.5 bn) liquefied natural
gas (LNG) project, which already has foreign investors -- a partnership
of NIOC (50%), Anglo-Dutch firm Royal Dutch Shell (25%), and Spain’s
Repsol-YPF (25%). When operational, the project’s initial production
capacity will consist of two components, each capable of an annual
production of 8 mm tons of LNG. For Ankara, the choice of major natural
gas suppliers is difficult, Russia or Iran, while waiting for Azerbaijan
to ramp up production. Iran, which holds the world's second largest gas
reserves, currently provides over one-third of Turkey’s domestic demand,
while Turkey receives 63.7% of its imports from Gazprom with smaller
volumes coming from Azerbaijan. In 1996 Turkey signed a contract with
Iran for natural gas deliveries, which began in December 2001 via a
pipeline from Tabriz to Ankara. The South Caucasus pipeline, also known
as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, opened in December
2006 with an annual capacity of 8.8 bn cm and carries Azeri Caspian
natural gas to Turkey via Georgia. Energy imports from both nations are
critical to sustaining Turkish economic growth, even though Washington,
whose diplomatic relations are increasingly strained with Russia and
non-existent with Iran, is very unhappy about the situation. According
to Turkey’s Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu (Turkish Statistical Institute),
Turkey’s economic growth accelerated more than expected from January
through March, increasing to 6.6% from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of
2007 (www.tuik.gov.tr). The figure exceeded the market estimates by 35
to 40%, as the expected growth rate was around 4% (Milliyet, July 1). In
2007 Turkey's annual GDP growth rate was 4.5%. Rising energy costs,
however, are proving to be a significant drag on economic growth.
Earlier this year the Turkish government hiked electricity prices by
21%, and Ankara is preparing to raise natural gas prices in July by 9%
for residences and 11% for businesses (Radikal, July 1). In June,
Turkey’s Devlet Planlama Teskilati (State Planning Organization, or DPT)
prepared a comprehensive projection for Turkey’s economy from 2009
through 2011, which has been approved by the Cabinet and published in
the government’s official gazette, Resmi Gazete (http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr,
June 28). The plan includes measures to ensure energy supply security in
the long-term and gives top priority to decreasing the country’s
dependence on imported natural gas. At a time of record high oil prices,
when Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said, "Consumer countries have to
adapt to the prices and the mechanisms of the market," Washington’s
efforts to compel its allies to respect its hard-line sanctions against
Tehran seem at best naïve, especially when the United States has no
alternative sources of energy to offer (Al-Siyassah, July 2). While
Washington’s threats of sanctions in June caused both Royal Dutch Shell
and Repsol-YPF to withdraw from the South Pars development, there is a
major difference between a multinational company and a sovereign
government bending to sanctions. For Turkey, displays of political
solidarity must take a back seat to financial considerations, as the
government is committed to economic growth to improve the lives of its
citizens. Ankara estimates that from Desert Storm in 1991 until the
March 2003 invasion of Iraq, it lost an estimated $80 bn in oil revenues
and increased energy costs as a result of supporting US and UN sanctions
and policies against Iraq. Washington can hardly expect Turkey to suffer
further financial losses for supporting its Middle East policies. With
no end to energy price increases in sight, Washington must acknowledge
the reality of Turkey’s pragmatic economic relations with its
energy-rich eastern neighbour, even if it does not agree with them.
Iran's Ahmadinejad in Turkey In Next Month
Iran Mania
(July 26, 2008) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is
expected to pay an official visit to Turkey at the invitation of his
Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul, PressTV reported. The visit would take
place late in August and diplomatic sources in Ankara have declared that
a date for the visit will be set soon, Turkish Daily reported on Friday.
During the meeting agreements would be signed to further strengthen
economic ties between the two neighboring countries. In May, Ahmadinejad
in a meeting with Turkish State Minister Kursad Tuzmen said the two
countries have the potential to turn into major economic powers in the
world. The Turkish state minister said that the trade volume between the
two countries could reach USD 20b by the end of 2011.
Iran, Turkey discuss ways
to further cooperation, nuclear issue
Mathaba (July
19, 2008) - The Iranian minister who visited Turkey at the
invitation of his Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan left Ankara on Friday
evening. During the meeting, Mottaki and Erdogan stressed the need for
broadening Tehran-Ankara economic ties by carrying out more projects in
energy field including construction of power plants. Mottaki also
briefed Erdogan on latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear
program hoping that the upcoming talks between nuclear Iran and the
Group 5+1 would lead to positive outcome. Iran's top nuclear negotiator
Saeed Jalili arrived in Geneva, Austria, on July 18 to take part in the
talks due to be held on Saturday. In a major shift from a long-standing
policy, the US State Department announced on Wednesday that Under
Secretary of State William Burns, the third-highest US diplomat, would
join the 5+1 talks with Iran. The Turkish prime minister told Mottaki
that Ankara was happy that the trend of talks between Iran and the West
was progressing. Erdogan stressed that peaceful negotiations was the
only solution to Iran's nuclear standoff with the West. Mottaki also
held two rounds of talks with his Turkish counterpart and also met
Turkish President Abdullah Gul. His visit to Turkey was part of a
regional tour which had earlier took him to Oman and Syria.
Hizbullah moves into 'every town'
The Jerusalem Post (July 17, 2008)
- Hizbullah is bolstering its presence in south Lebanon villages with
non-Shi'ite majorities by buying land and using it to build military
positions and store missiles and launchers, The Jerusalem Post has
learned. The decision to build infrastructure in non-Shi'ite villages -
where Hizbullah has less support - is part of the group's post-war
strategy under which it has mostly abandoned the "nature reserves,"
forested areas in southern Lebanon where it kept most of its Katyusha
rocket launchers before the Second Lebanon War. Behind the change is the
mandate given to UNIFIL by the United Nations after the war in 2006.
According to the mandate, the peacekeeping force can patrol freely
throughout southern Lebanon but cannot enter villages or cities without
being accompanied by soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces, which
regularly tips off Hizbullah ahead of the raids. News of the change in
Hizbullah strategy came as Israel is trying to persuade the UN to
strengthen UNIFIL's mandate to give it the right to patrol the villages
freely. "Hizbullah is moving into every town that it can," a senior
defense official told the Post. "This is in order to evade UNIFIL
detection." On Thursday, Lebanese complained they were receiving
recorded phone messages from Israel promising "harsh retaliation" for
any future Hizbullah attack. The automated messages also warn against
allowing Hizbullah to form "a state within a state" in the country. The
phone messages end with the words: "The State of Israel." There was no
immediate confirmation from Israel, though similar reports surfaced of
Israeli phone campaigns during the 2006 war trying to persuade Lebanese
not to support Hizbullah. Lebanon's official National News Agency said
residents in the country's south and east, as well as in Beirut
reporting receiving the calls. It said Telecommunications Minister
Jibran Bassil contacted the United Nations to complain, calling it a
"flagrant aggression against Lebanese sovereignty." Also Thursday,
defense officials warned that with the prisoner swap completed,
Hizbullah would no longer need to restrain itself and might decide to
avenge the assassination of the group's operations chief, Imad Mughniyeh,
who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus last February. As a result, the
IDF has slightly increased its level of alert along the border, based on
the assessment that even if a retaliatory attack took place abroad the
violence would spread to the Israeli-Lebanese border.
We only get one strike
The Jerusalem Post (July 16, 2008) -
An Israeli attack on Iran seems inevitable. If it succeeds, it will
return to Israel its deterrent power and send a clear message to the
saber-rattling jihadists that they were too early in beginning the
countdown for the disappearance of the Jewish state. If it fails, or
fails to achieve the majority of its objectives, it could amount to an
act of national suicide. Fanatical Muslims on every side will be
encouraged by the failure and outcome of an Iranian retaliation which
would cause heavy damage to the whole center of our country. Iran would
unquestionably be joined by its proxies on our borders, Hizbullah and
Syria on the north and Hamas on the south, the PLO jihad brigades under
various names, and the Arabs of Israel. The latter have already shown
their ability to block major traffic arteries and demonstrated that
their loyalties rest with their Arab brethren, not with the Jewish
state. The repeated declarations of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that
the aim of Iran is to wipe Israel off the world map should not be taken
as the empty, fiery words of a fanatical Muslim dictator, but as a plan
of action. True, Iran does not need a pretext, but an Israeli attack on
any nuclear installation in Iran, or just an invasion of Iranian air
space could be used as an excellent reason for mounting an all-out
missile attack. Since the late ninth century, the Shi'ites have been
expecting the emergence of the hidden imam-mahdi, armed with divine
power and followed by thousands of martyrdom-seeking warriors. He is
expected to conquer the world and establish Shi'ism as its supreme
religion and system of rule. His appearance would involve terrible war
and unusual bloodshed. Ahmadinejad, as mayor of Teheran, built a
spectacular boulevard through which the mahdi would enter into the
capital. There is no question that Ahmadinejad believes he has been
chosen to be the herald of the mahdi. Shi'ite Islam differs from Sunni
Islam regarding the identity of the mahdi. The Sunni mahdi is
essentially an anonymous figure; the Shi'ite mahdi is a divinely
inspired person with a real identity. However both Shi'ites and Sunnis
share one particular detail about "the coming of the hour" and the
dawning of messianic times: The Jews must all suffer a violent death, to
the last one. Both Shi'ites and Sunnis quote the famous hadith
attributed to the Prophet Muhammad: The last hour will not come unless
the Muslims fight against the Jews, and the Muslims would kill them
until the Jews hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and the stone or
the tree would say: "Muslim! Servant of Allah! Here is a Jew behind me;
come and kill him!" Not one Friday passes without this hadith being
quoted in sermons from one side of the Islamic world to the other.
more...
Ahmadinejad: We'll sever enemies' hands
The Jerusalem Post
(July 13,
2008) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened on Sunday
to "cut off the hands" of any would-be attackers of the Islamic
Republic. "Before the enemies touch the trigger, the armed forces will
cut off their hands," the state-run IRNA news agency quoted the leader
as saying. Ahmadinejad said that missile tests conducted last week
exhibited "only a small part" of Iran's defense capabilities, and that,
if necessary, further capabilities would be revealed. Ahmadinejad's
statement comes amid a report that US President George W. Bush has given
Israel the "amber light" to carry out an attack on Iran if diplomatic
efforts are unsuccessful in causing the Islamic Republic to back down
and relinquish its nuclear program. According to a senior Pentagon
official quoted by the British Sunday Times on Sunday morning, Bush has
given Israel free rein to attack Iran's nuclear sites if sanctions fail
in spite of opposition from US generals and regardless of the possible
economic and political repercussions of such a strike. "Amber means get
on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us
when you're ready," the official said, adding however, that Israel had
been told that it could not count on the US to lend it military support.
Contradicting recent reports to the contrary, he also said that the IAF
would not be permitted to take off from American military bases in Iraq.
The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the report. Ahmadinejad's
aggressive statements contrasted strikingly with a report on Iranian
state TV Sunday, which quoted him as saying that Iran would welcome the
idea of setting up a US diplomatic office in Teheran. The report quoted
the firebrand Iranian leader as saying he would consider an American
request to set up an interests section in Iran. He said he "welcomes any
move to expand ties." But Ahmadinejad said his government hasn't
received any official request for such an office. Last month, US
officials floated the idea but no formal requests were made. more...
'We'll Take Land By Force if Talks Fail'
The Jerusalem Post
(July 12,
2008) - Should diplomacy fail to return "Israeli-occupied land"
to Lebanon, the Lebanese army (LAF) will take it by force, Lebanese
President Gen. Michel Sueleiman said on Sunday. Suleiman was speaking at
a press conference after meeting Syrian President Bashar Assad on the
sidelines of the Mediterranean conference in Paris. The Lebanese
president stressed, however, that the military option was the last
resort. Assad said Lebanon had an important role to play in the Middle
East peace process and that any progress in future Israel-Lebanon
negotiations would be made in coordination with Syria. Meanwhile, in
what is being interpreted in Israel as a declaration of ownership, the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has built a road and set up a military
position in the Shaba Farms/ Mount Dov area for the first time since
Israel's withdrawal from that part of Lebanon in 2000. Israeli defense
officials confirmed the move, which was first reported in the Lebanese
media, but would not comment on its significance.
Sarkozy: Syria and Lebanon will open embassies
Associated Press
(July 12,
2008) - France's president says Syria and Lebanon will open
embassies in each other's countries. The nations have not had
full-fledged embassies in each other's countries since Lebanon became
independent in 1943 and Syria in 1945. Syrian President Bashar Assad
said last month that establishing diplomatic ties with Lebanon would be
possible if a national unity Cabinet was formed in Beirut. Such a
government, including members of Syria's ally Hezbollah, was formed
Friday after weeks of haggling. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is
hosting a summit among leaders of 43 nations from Europe and the
Mediterranean rim. Lebanon's new president said Saturday he wants to
establish diplomatic ties with Syria and exchange ambassadors, calling
for a major shift in long-hostile relations between the neighbors.
Michel Suleiman spoke before talks in Paris with his Syrian counterpart,
Bashar Assad — and on the eve of a rare summit among leaders of 43
nations from Europe and the Mediterranean rim that France says could
send a "wind of hope" through the region. "We want an exchange of
ambassadors and diplomatic relations with Syria," Suleiman told
reporters at the French presidential palace. He said he was "satisfied"
with relations with Syria and that a visit there is "still on the
agenda." The two countries have not had diplomatic relations since 2005,
when former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed. Syria's
critics accuse Damascus of having a role in the slaying, a charge Syria
denies. Suleiman would not comment on a hoped-for timeframe for new ties
or embassies. The nations have not had full-fledged embassies in each
other's countries since Lebanon became independent in 1943 and Syria in
1945. more...
Hezbollah uprising exposed it as Iran's puppet in Lebanon
Ya Libnan (June
9, 2008)
- Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Shiite mullahs executing Khomeini's will
to export the "Islamic revolution" remain on their self-assigned mission
to slay the "Great Satan," the U.S. They were finding their campaign
stumbling in all the pertinent places throughout the Sunni-dominated
Mideast. This forced the Iranians to concentrate on multi-religious
Lebanon in order to compensate for the major grounds lost lately in
Iraq. The projection of Iranian power comes mainly in the form of
Hezbollah. Hezbollah's most recent pretext to disrupt and dominate the
nation was simple decisions of sovereignty by the Lebanese government on
May7, including extending control over the Hezbollah communications
network. Hezbollah refused. The group launched an armed revolt in
Beirut, conquering districts, trashing government buildings, burning TV
stations, and looting the city at will. But six days of violent
confrontations between the well-armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and
untrained individual Lebanese did not lead to the fall of the government
or plunge the country in complete chaos as it was intended. Lebanese
citizens improvised strategies to defend their neighborhoods. Hezbollah
fighters lacked necessary logistical support in order to remain in the
areas they invaded. So Hezbollah had to hand over the zones back to the
Lebanese army. The Arabs, realizing the gravity of the Iranian assault,
started an initiative culminating in a summit in Qatar. Ultimately, the
factional and governmental representatives left with the Doha Accord.
Pacification returned to the smoldering streets of Beirut. more...
Crossfire War - Israel Estimates Iran-Syria to Fire 250-300 Long Range
Missiles News Blaze
(July 3, 2008) - "How Many Missiles will be
Fired from Iran-Syria-Lebanon Against Israel in the Next War?" was the
subject of a lecture given by Major-General (res.) Eitan Ben Eliahu at
the Israel Missile Defense Association (IMDA) (www.imda.org.il) a new
link with Crossfire War. Haaretz reports General Eliahu headed the
Israel Air Force (IAF) from 1996-2000 and in his lecture earlier this
week he estimated Syria-Iran will launch 250-300 long range Shahab-Scud
missiles at Israel in the next war. Eliahu estimated Hezbollah in
Lebanon will be able to launch 5,000 short range missiles, an increase
from the 4,200 they fired in 2006. Hezbollah does possess some longer
range missiles which can hit Tel Aviv and no doubt they will be used as
quickly as possible since the IAF will make destroying the longer range
missiles their top priority whether they are fired from
Lebanon-Syria-Iran. Eliahu expects the full scale fighting to last 20
days. [HAARETZ]
In the course of his discussion General Eliahu mentioned Israel
operates under a security doctrine that does allow for An Initiated War
(preventive strike) as in 1967 which was so successful the war
lasted only six days and Israel was able to take the strategic Golan
Heights, a Syrian obsession ever since and Damascus' main motive for
entering the war this year. He then said if an Initiated War is not
possible then the doctrine provides for a Pre-Emptive Attack to disrupt
the enemy's preparation. The IAF attack on the Syrian nuclear
base last September was an example. Eliahu then mentioned if war
does result then Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must conduct a holding
operation during which they must achieve Aerial Superiority. He probably
realizes if/when Israel does conduct a pre-emptive attack on Iran, for
disruptive purposes, it would mean full scale war, beyond the serious
flare ups of the past two years which did not yet lead to Israel's
offensive into Gaza. Eliahu stated Israel should
expect the next war to require action on one to three fronts and in
order to achieve victory the IDF must crush the enemy on one of the
fronts, which would be either Hezbollah in Lebanon or Syria. Since the
ground area to cover is smaller in Lebanon Israel's offensive there
should not take as long as in the case with Syria. Jerusalem may also
prefer a quick victory against the hated Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah even if
it means using nuclear weapons. Concerning Palestinian units in Gaza
Eliahu recommends a war of containment which would include a ground
offensive. Against Iran he recommended long range attacks should be
continued. more... Russian FM visits Turkey Kuwait News Agency (July 2, 2008) - In a visit which is the first of its kind for a high ranking Russian official following the presidential elections in Moscow last March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has arrived at Turkey on an official visit to discuss a number of hot regional issues. During the two-day visit, Lavrov will meet with his Turkish counterpart Ali Babajan, the president Abdullah Gul, and the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The meetings will |
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